Economists never were great communicators. As managers struggle to read the data and seek signs of the recovery, economists’ messages continue to baffle. Here are excerpts from the latest Business Week article on the subject, along with translation into simple English:

Real gross domestic product declined at a pace of just 1% in the second quarter, after a 6.4% decline in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said July 31. The Commerce Department also released multiyear revisions in the GDP that showed the recession was deeper in 2008 than originally reported. Here’s a selection from analyst reactions to the report:

GDP data are revised, often a year or more later. The 2008 US recession was, it seems far deeper than the original numbers showed.

Action Economics: The Q2 figures extend the pattern of a skewing in 2009 economic weakness toward the business from the consumer sector. 

Initially, lower consumer spending was the key cause of the recession. Now it is business investment, both in buildings and in machines. Consumer spending is making a slow recovery in the U.S.

Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics: We expect GDP to post a modest increase in the third quarter, as the pace of inventory liquidation slows and government spending enjoys another big fiscal-related surge.

In every recession, inventories grow when businesses sell less to consumers than they had planned and expected. So businesses cut back production, lay off workers and stop investing, to reduce inventories. Ashworth expects “the pace of inventory liquidation” to slow, a good sign, meaning that businesses may go back to producing for current sale.  Managers should watch inventories closely, they are an important indicator.

One other key indicator that managers should track: jobs. The early signs of some recovery in the US economy do not include unemployment, job creation and jobless numbers. Desperate cost-cutting on the part of most businesses means that even if GDP and spending numbers recover somewhat, this may not be reflected in the job market. There may be a ‘disconnect’ between the goods market and the jobs market, and this could lead to a scenario of ‘double dip’ — workers whose incomes and jobs are weak again slash spending, leading to a second round of inflation.