Innovation Blog

How to Lose the Energy Race Before It Even Starts

By Shlomo Maital

    America has lost the race to develop clean alternative energy sources — well before it really starts in earnest. 

    One of my students found two charts, published by the US Department of Energy, based on data supplied by leading US automobile companies, showing an alarming projection.

    The charts reveal that internal combustion engines powered by conventional gasoline will remain the dominant technology up to 2030 and well beyond, according to the DOE.  Trucks, perhaps, will shift to other forms of energy more massively, because in trucking costs are vital and energy costs are a major part of total costs [from 5 m. gasoline-powered light trucks sold in 2010, sales will fall to 3 m. in 2030, with other forms of power taking up the slack]– but private vehicles?   More of the same.  Gasoline.  New car sales of gas powered vehicles will rise from 5.5 m. yearly in 2010 to nearly 8 m. in 2030, accoding to the DOE.

   Now, these are not just projections. They are policies.  The DOE, as a government ministry, has means to influence these charts.  For instance, if as NYT columnist Tom Friedman advocates, a permanent stiff tax on gasoline were imposed, making the price of gasoline in the U.S. roughly what it is in Europe ($5.80 – $6.00 per gallon), rather than the current level, about half that, or $3.00, suddenly investing in alternative energy would become far more attractive.  But no political leader has the courage even to suggest such a thing.       

   So America has chosen to opt out of this crucial race right at the start.  And hence — America’s disastrous dependence on foreign oil will continue for another generation at least.   For those of us accused of unjustly bad-mouthing America, this is one more powerful reason to be downbeat about America’s future.