Global Outlook:  Not Too Rosy  

By Shlomo Maital

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) issues global forecasts from time to time.  The latest is far from rosy.  Here is a summary. Not too rosy.

  * Globally, economic growth will be slow —  stuck at around 2.5-2.7% yearly during from 2024-2027.  Reason:  The three main economic ‘engines’, US, EU and China will also grow slowly,  at around 2.0%, 1.7% and 4.1%, respectively.

   * China’s slow growth, relatively, is a problem, because China has become habituated to generating large employment growth — though its aging population makes that less urgent.

   * World inflation will slow from 4.8% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2027.

   * Global food supplies will remain perilous (Russia now threatens to leave the Black Sea grain shipment accord).

   * US and China, now foes, are each untying their ecosystem links that brought benefits to each.  This is proving difficult and costly – and overall, is bad for the world economy.

    * Experts think the bloody Russia-Ukraine war will drag on forever – but I believe it may come to a sudden and unpredictable end, when Putin falls.

    What does this mean for us ordinary citizens?  I probably say this too often, but —  err on the side of caution, set aside an emergency fund just in case bad, unexpected things occur – as they seem to do these days.