2047: We Were Warned

By Shlomo Maital

  Twelve years ago, the leading science journal Nature published an unusual article.  It was the result of a class project, led by Dr. Camilo Mora,  University of Hawaii.  Mora and students did this: 

     “They divided the earth into a grid, with each cell representing 386 square miles. Averaging the results from the 39 climate models, they calculated a date they called “climate departure” for each location — the date after which all future years were predicted to be warmer than any year in the historical record for that spot on the globe. The results suggest that if emissions of greenhouse gases remain high, then after 2047, more than half the earth’s surface will experience annual climates hotter than anything that occurred between 1860 and 2005, the years for which historical temperature data and reconstructions are available.”

    The students used models operated by 21 research centers in 12 countries, all of them publicly available.

     The New York Times’ Justin Gillis wrote about it, under the headline: “By 2047, Coldest Years May be Warmer than Hottest in Past, Scientists Say”.#

       My wife and I have five great-grandchildren.  By 2047, they will be graduating from college, finding a spouse, and beginning their working lives.  The planet in which they do this will be hotter than hell.   The coldest day will be warmer than the hottest in the past.  The hottest day?   Words fail me. 

       Most attention now is being paid to the melting of the Arctic icecap.  But the 2013 paper showed that the greatest impact of global warming will occur in the tropics, near the equator.  

       The tropics constitute 40% of Earth’s surface area and contain 36% of Earth’s landmass. It is home to 40% of the world’s population, projected to reach 50% by 2047.

        The tropics are also where I and our great-grandchildren live – in Israel, only some 2,000 miles north of the equator.

         The generations, including mine, that did this to our planet and to our descendants can no longer prevent it, but only mitigate it, maybe slightly.  And the Big Oil big bucks that pump the media use the fossil fuel billions to perpetuate the problem.

          It we truly love our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren – how in the world have we done this to them?   

# New York Times, Oct. 10, 2013, Section A, Page 10.