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ISIL’s Return to Gold: Don’t Sell Them Short!
By Shlomo Maital
From the start, the world has consistently underestimated ISIL. (the “L” stands for “Levant”, or, Mideast). The American-led bombing campaign, for instance. America and its allies have conducted 6,000 sorties in total. (A sortie is a bombing mission by one plane). This is a drop in the bucket. The New York Times points out that Syria, the collapsing non-country does this number of bombing raids on its own civilians every few days.
Now comes the 55-minute video, Return of the Khalifah, a video denouncing the fractional reserve banking system, and advocating (notes The Economist) “the return of the ultimate measure of wealth for the world”: gold. The video shows the new ISIL gold coin.
There is no risk that the gold coin will replace the paper dollar, as the video promises. But the economics in the video are very strong. America HAS over-expanded its dollar money supply, to the detriment of other countries. The gold standard, which lasted for 150 years, was indeed successful in keeping countries from excessive debt and excessive money creation. If the dollar is the world currency, it must be stable — yet the U.S., to spur its own economy, has created massive excessive amounts of them.
The video strays into blind hatred, as usual, noting that “America has been able to avoid hyperinflation and maintain its military hegemony largely thanks to the petrodollar system. Islamic State hopes that with the introduction of what it is calling the dinar, all oil will be paid for with gold instead of being priced in dollars, which would “mark the death of this oppressive banknote” and bring America “to her knees” “. This will not happen. But the fact that oil prices are denominated in dollars, and largely paid for in dollars, has doubtless been a benefit for the U.S., though it is now becoming an energy exporter.
The world today is awash in money, owing to QE (quantitative easing) practiced by the U.S. and European Central Banks. This mountain of money has created the seeds for the next global crisis. Neither the U.S. Fed nor the ECB know how to end QE and begin raising interest rates, without panicking capital markets and crashing in particular the huge bond market. Under a gold standard system, this could not happen.
Let us stop underestimating, scorning, discounting ISIL. Their use of media is highly sophisticated. Their videos are professional. Their military tactics borrow from the tactics used by special forces of the U.S., Australia and Britain. They are not going away. And they do pose a threat. They are the prime cause of the massive wave of humanity now washing up on Europe’s shores. The longer ISIL survives, the harder it will be to eliminate it. It is time to wake up. Their gold coin campaign is just one more reason.
Pile-On Meetings: How to Fight ‘Stovepipes’
By Shlomo Maital
Kathleen Finch
Kathleen Finch is the chief programming officer for several cable TV channels: HGTV (Home & Garden Channel), Food Network and Travel Channel. Her job requires a great deal of creativity, in keeping programming fresh, relevant and lively for viewers.
Interviewed in today’s International New York Times, she reveals some of her methods for maintaining creativity. One of them is called “pile-on meetings”. I believe this is a remedy for stovepipe management – that is, narrowly defined management responsibilities, vertical ones, with very little interaction or overlap for creative ideas. Stovepipes are one of the reasons that big organizations with detailed vertical organizational charts struggle to innovate.
“I have a meeting every few months that I call a pile-on meeting,” she told the NYT. “I bring about 25 people into a room and go over all the different projects that are coming up in the next 6 months and the goal is that everybody piles on with their ideas to make those projects as successful as they can be. The rule walking into the meeting is that you must forget your job title. I don’t want the marketing person just talking about marketing. I want everyone talking about what they would do to make this better. It is amazing what comes out of those meetings!”
Another key insight? “I love when things don’t go right, because it’s a good time to talk about taking smart risks. If everything worked all the time, that would mean we’re not trying anything crazy, and it’s the crazy ideas that end up being the really successful ideas.”
Again, another reason big organizations fail to innovate. Who would attempt anything, in the corporate world, that could well fail?
Innovation: Lessons from Stephen Colbert –
You Can’t Discover the Product Until You’re Making It
By Shlomo Maital
Stephen Colbert
Some readers may recognize Stephen Colbert as the host of the Comedy Central show “The Colbert Report”, which in its last season drew 1.7 million viewers, amusing them with Colbert’s skill at deflating hypocrites and finding enormous irony in our daily political lives. CBS chose him to succeed David Letterman, in its “The Late Show”, which launches soon.
We can learn two major innovation lessons from Colbert and his new venture.
First, Colbert’s persona for his “Colbert Report” show was entirely different from the one that he must embrace for The Late Show. For Comedy Central’s savvy viewers, mostly young, “wonkish” according to the New York Times, he was perfect. Now, for The Late Show, he has to reinvent himself, to become more genial, softer, kinder, gentler, because who wants prickles at 11:35 p.m., when you’re drowsy and just want to relax, chuckle and doze off in front of the TV? Jon Stewart, who until recently hosted The Daily Show, has said, “what made [Colbert’s character] work was the thing that Stephen had to hide – which is his humanity”. Adapting to your clients, when they change, is crucial for any innovator. And above all, it means being highly sensitive and attuned to who they are and what they really want. This is especially hard when the product is the show host himself.
So, that brings us to the second lesson, an important one.
“You can’t discover the product until you’re making it”. Colbert said this. I would turn that saying into a sign and post it on the walls of every startup. Until you make the product, and deliver it to clients, and hear their reaction, you have not yet really discovered the product. Discovery begins not with the idea, but with the first person who actually uses the product.
So how did Colbert test his Late Show formula? He and his team spent the whole summer producing original content, and then uploaded it, even though they did not yet have a TV program to try it on. According to The New York Times, Colbert will have to “take command of his work and assert his tastes confidently and unapologetically” – this, at a time when there is an army of producers, directors, joke writers and CBS executives messing around with The Late Show (a machine that prints money) and giving advice.
So, innovator – discover your product – by making it. It’s so simple. And it’s why many startups fail, when they think they are taking time to perfect their product, without really knowing whether anybody will like it and buy it.
Be like Colbert. Get serious. Get your product out there and see the reaction. Before you do that, you won’t have a clue.
Diabetes: Breakthrough?
By Shlomo Maital
Remember how an Australian researcher discovered the cause of ulcers – bacteria! He did it by injecting himself with the specific bacteria and causing an ulcer, at a time when the medical establishment pooh-poohed his hypothesis.
Now comes news about a breakthrough in diabetes research. Diabetes is a virtual epidemic, as sugar consumption soars (Americans consume 30 kg. per person annually!), Coca Cola pushes sugary drinks and pays scholars to say the problem is lack of exercise….
Scholars at Israel’s Weizmann Institute, one of the world’s greatest universities, led by Dr. Eran Elyaniv, and publishing their findings in Science, have linked diabetes to the masses of microbes that inhabit our intestines. They found that Type 2 diabetes is directly related to the rate at which our intestinal microbes multiply or fail to.
The research included students of computer science, and used a new technique related to computational biology. The breakthrough shows how modern scientific research requires a portfolio of techniques that link nano, bio, computers, software, electronics, and other fields.
The research team found that changes in the microbes in our stomach and intestines can be directly related to onset of Type 2 diabetes.
This could possibly lead to first, much earlier detection of diabetes, bringing effective treatment; or, possibly, second, a medical cure for it (none exists today), based on medication that influences the development of intestinal microbes.
It has long been known that our wellbeing is influenced strongly by the wellbeing of the massive numbers of microbes that live, multiply and reproduce in our intestines. Now research links this directly with diabetes. Congratulations to the researchers.
End of a Trend?
By Shlomo Maital
Bond. The name’s Bond.
No, not James Bond. Bond bonds, like, 2 per cent U.S. Treasury bonds.
We have seen a two-decade 20-year bull market in bonds. Some investors, like the legendary bond guru Bill Gross, made a fortune on it. But now, some, perhaps like Gross, may have missed the inflection point – the turning point that sees an end to the bond bull market.
What drove the bull market? Falling interest rates, and rising bond prices, as central banks everywhere fought the global stagnation in the wake of the 2007-8 crisis by printing money and slashing interest rates.
The booming Chinese economy, from 2002, created a huge boom in commodities and flooded with cash poorer countries that exported commodities (copper, oil, gas, iron, etc.) with cash. According to Mike Dolan, writing the “Inside the Markets” column in today’s New York Times, that boom led cash-rich countries to invest in low-risk government bonds, issued by the U.S. and other G7 countries. This led to rising bond prices and falling yields. It also led to the boom in the stock market. When you can’t make money on your investments in bonds, because of low yields, well, dump it into stocks.
That trend is over, Dolan notes. The IMF says that the value of foreign currency reserves held by Central Banks rose in just one decade, from $1 trillion to over $8 trillion by mid-2014. That mini-trend is over too. Central Banks of exporting nations are now divesting their dollar holdings and spending them. No longer will they dump the money into U.S. Treasuries. And yields will rise, bond prices will fall.
Central Banks everywhere are under pressure to raise interest rates, especially the U.S. Fed. Fed Chair Janet Yellen so far has delayed, and resisted, but it is inevitable. And markets are already capitalizing, into bond prices, the anticipated rate hike.
Dolan quotes Deutsche Bank: “The peak in bond demand is probably behind us.”
Each of us needs to think about the implications of this inflection point, the shift from Mr. Bond to Mr. Bust. Think about the possible teleology, or chain of events. Higher interest rates mean…. Higher interest and debt-service costs, hurting debt-ridden governments, debt-laden businesses….and individuals?
Lock in your low interest and mortgage rates now, while you can.
Bernie Sanders is Taking the Money Out of Politics
By Shlomo Maital
Senator Bernie Sanders is running a long-shot campaign for the Democratic nomination for President. Like all socialists, he has no chance of actually being elected, but very high probability that some of his ideas will be tamed and adopted by his rivals.
In today’s New York Times, a strong editorial reveals one other huge gift Sanders brings to the table. He is raising money the old-fashioned way – one small gift at a time. The average donation to Sanders’ campaign is $31.30. “It would be hard to buy any politician for $31.30”, says the Times. Americans of ordinary means have given Sanders 400,000 donations, and 80 per cent of them were less than $200. Now, contrast that with the fact that 400 of America’s wealthiest families, writing huge checks, account for half the money raised so far by both parties, Republicans and Democrats. And Trump? As a billionaire, he pays his own bills… and bought his way into the lead.
America’s Supreme Court, notes the Times, in its recent Citizens United decision, “has greatly boosted the buying power of corporate and special interest donors and made a casino frenzy of the (nomination) race”. The Koch brothers, billionaires, organized 400 of their wealthy friends to create a super war chest of $889 million for Republican candidates. Jeb Bush raised over $100 m. in big-check donations so far. Even Hillary Clinton has raised over $20 m. in super-PAC money.
When democracy is bought by the rich, who invariably seek (and get) favors in return from those whom they help elect, it is no longer democracy. So, good for you, Bernie! Tear a strip off the big donors. You bring honesty and sanity to this weird campaign.
Mayo Clinic Can Make Cancer Cells Normal!
By Shlomo Maital
Professor Panos Anastasiadis
An exciting report recounts how Mayo Clinic scientists, in Florida, led by Prof. Panos Anastasiadis, have done the impossible – made cancerous cells healthy again.
Here is how the London Daily Mail reported the breakthrough: “Scientists have found a code for turning off cancer, it was announced today. In exciting experiments, they made cancerous breast and bladder cells benign again. And they believe many other types of cancer should be in their grasp. They said that their work reveals ‘an unexpected new biology that provides the code, the software for turning off cancer’. Most importantly, it uncovers ‘a new strategy for cancer therapy’. In landmark research, Mayo Clinic scientists made cancerous cells benign again. And they believe many other types of cancer should be in their grasp.”
What the scientists did, is inject micro-RNA into the cancerous cells, which turned off the cells’ desperate cancerous need to divide again and again, and spread.
According to the Daily Mail: “The work is still at an early stage but brings with it hope that cancer will take fewer lives in the future. Unlike conventional cancer drugs, which work by killing cancer, the work aims to disarm it and render them harmless. The breakthrough focuses on a protein called PLEKHA7 that helps healthy cells clump together. The research showed it to be missing or faulty in a range of cancers. When this happens, key genetic instructions to the cells are scrambled and they turn cancerous. A research team, led by Panos Anastasiadis, was able to reset the instructions – turning off the cancer. Experiments in a dish showed that human cells from highly dangerous bladder cancers can be made normal again. Dr Anastasiadis said: ‘Initial experiments in some aggressive types of cancer are indeed very promising.’ He thinks the approach, detailed in the journal Nature Cell Biology, would apply to most cancers, other than brain and blood cancers.”
For years, scientists have sought a new approach to treating cancer, other than the some 200 drugs used for chemotherapy, that are toxic and cause great suffering, and often do not work.
Perhaps this is the ‘silver bullet’ breakthrough?
2050: Which Countries Will be Most Populous?
By Shlomo Maital
Forecasting 2050? That’s 35 years from now – in today’s world, impossible to predict what the world will be like then, right? Except for one thing – population. Demographers are pretty good at forecasting population trends. Here is Bloomberg’s report, based on a study by the Population Reference Bureau.
Today: The world’s most populous country is China, with nearly 1.4 billion people. A very close second is India, with almost 1.3 billion. Third is America, at 340 million, followed closely by Indonesia, with some 230 million. Fifth, Brazil, and sixth Pakistan, both around 200 million. Seventh, Nigeria, 180 million; Eighth, Bangladesh, 150 million, followed by Russia and Mexico.
2050: India will be the world’s most populous country by far, at 1.65 billion. China’s population will actually decline (owing to the one-child policy), to just below 1.4 billion.
U.S. will be third, at 400 m., with Hispanics providing much of the growth, in a tie with Nigeria. Fifth, Indonesia, followed by Pakistan, and Brazil, at just over 200 m. Bangladesh will be 8th. A surprising 9th will be Congo, with close to 200 m., and 10th, Ethiopia, at about 180 million. Russia will not be in the top 10, as its birth rate is far below replacement. So is Japan’s.
In other words, three of the 10 most populous countries in the world will be African by 2050. The world may do well to begin thinking now about how Africa will feed its growing population, and how the world can help it prepare to do so. Perhaps India as well.
Wheat Is More Complex Than Einstein
By Shlomo Maital
Born in Saskatchewan, I grew up among waving fields of golden wheat. Few sights are more beautiful. Little did I know how ‘smart’ wheat plants are…until Prof. Chamovitz.
Prof. Daniel Chamovitz is a Tel Aviv Univ. plant geneticist, author of a recent book, What a Plan Knows: A Field Guide to the Senses (2012, Scientific American). He was interviewed recently in the Hebrew language Haaretz weekly magazine.
Among his research projects: “Recently we got interested in the question of what anti-cancer chemicals found in plants do for the plant. Particularly we’re studying indole-3-carbinol (I3C), a phytochemical found in vegetables like broccoli and mustard that has also been reported effective in killing breast and prostate cancer cells.”
According to Chamovitz, plants are genetically more complicated than humans! Human beings have some 20,000 – 25,000 genes. This is the number of genes Albert Einstein had. But plants have more. The rice plant, whose genome was decoded, has 37,000 genes. And according to Chamovitz, his team decoded the wheat genome, at Tel Aviv U., and found it has even more genes than rice.
Why?
Survival. Evolution, survival of the fittest.
For example, he notes, human beings have four genes that that control and develop light receptors in the retina. But plants have 13! Why? Light is more important for plants’ survival than it is for humans. Plants need to time their cycle according to the length of days (when to blossom, e.g.), they need to angle their stalks to seek light….
Historian Yuval Noah Harari claims, in his book, that wheat domesticated humans, rather than vice versa. Meaning: Wheat adapted itself, to create value for humans, leading humans to cultivate it widely. And that is the goal of living things – procreate, spread, multiply. Whatever the case, plants are highly sophisticated living things that have evolved in very touch environments, adapted beautifully to their surroundings, and where necessary, have created alliances with humans.
It may well be, as humans spew CO2 into the air and ruin their planet’s air and water, that plants will simply adjust and adapt, using their proliferation of genes, and inherit the earth from people with big brains who simply are incapable of really using them.
Read Stories to Your Kids – It Builds Their Brains!
By Shlomo Maital
Among many “old fashioned” things now disappearing, are parents reading stories to their kids. Dr. Parri Klass, writing in today’s Global New York Times, describes new research that shows we actually build kids’ brains when we read them stories.
A year ago, the American Academy of Pediatrics issued a statement saying all pediatric primary care should include “literacy promotion”, starting at birth! Babies need stories, not just vaccines. This month, Klass reports, the journal Pediatrics published a study using FMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging) to study brain activity in 3-5 year old children as they listened to age-appropriate stories. Children whose parents read a lot to them had more activity in a part of the brain that deals with integrating sound and visual stimulation. Why? “When kids are hearing stories, they’re imagining in their mind’s eye when they hear the story.” Apparently, this will help kids make images and stories out of words later on. It will also help stimulate creativity.
“When we show them a video… do we short circuit the process [of imaginging things] a little?” asked a researcher.
A famous Kansas study found that poor children heard millions fewer words by age 3 than better-off kids. They’re disadvantaged right from the start.
Another study found that “children who are being read to by caregivers are hearing vocabulary words that kids who are not being read to probably are not hearing.”
A researcher, Dr. Hutton, concluded, “Early reading is more than just a nice thing to do with kids… It really does have a very important role to play in building brain networks that will serve children long-term as they transition from verbal to reading.”
But all this is a bit beside the point. Reading to kids and grandkids is simply a great source of joy and satisfaction. And besides, when you do it, you get to read wonderful imaginative stories, like one I just bought, by Israeli author David Grossman, about “The Sun Princess”, a little girl whose mother secretly makes the sun rise and set and who joins the process. Now where can you find ‘adult’ books like that?
TIMnovate 