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Wolves of Wall Street Sink Us…Again
By Shlomo Maital
OK – they’ve done it again. The Wolves of Wall Street have again brought the world’s financial markets to the edge of the precipice.
How? They borrowed low (in Japan, where interest rates are near zero) and invested high (US, where the Fed has been conservative in deeping rates high).
Pretty simple. Pretty profitable. And…kind of risky. Because Japan is experiencing inflation – and it was pretty clear the Japanese Central Bank was going to crack down – Japan hates inflation, and deals with it aggressively. So – there is a double whammy. A surprising rate hike in Japan, making credit costly – and in the US, a surprising monthly data showing labor market weakness. Japan’s stock market fell by 12 % in a day or two — a very steep and destabilizing drop.
This has led the wolves to seek to cut their losses, extricate themselves from costly credit in Japan, and a sell-off ensues in world capital markets.
It is not the first time. Nor the last. Hopefully damage control will limit the harm done to us ordinary citizens, who mostly watch and wait and cluck our tongues at what the Wall St. Wolves are up to. And – apologies to the real wolves – they only kill to eat, not to buy yachts.
Women Rule…Men Drool
By Shlomo Maital
While writing a magazine column about two extraordinary Israeli women, who have organized a massive project to bring food to reserve IDF soldiers — I came to understand the special quality women bring to leadership.
Focus, determination – and minimal ego. Unlike some male ‘leaders’, whose egos exceed the mass of a small galaxy (spoiler: last name starts with “T”; Or the horrible PM of my country Israel, starts with “N”); male egos tend to drive narrow selfish political goals rather than the over-riding interest of the country. My country suffers greatly from this…
Here, for the record, are the names of 10 female political leaders currently running their countries with skill, focus and a great deal of self-effacement. (Have you heard of any of them lately? ) (Caveat, first – the Prime Minister of Bangladeash, a woman, has fled her country, after promising to restore democracy and becoming autocratic, arousing mass protests; a major exception):
Zuzana Caputova, President, Slovakia; Mette Frederiksen, PM Denmark; Kaja Kalias, PM Estonia; Saara Kuugongeiwa, PM Namibia; Katerina Sakellaropoulou, President, Greece; Moldova Maia Sandu, President Moldova; Ingrida Simonyte PM Lithuania; Sahie-Work Zewde, President, Ethiopia; Salome Zourabichvili, President, Georgia; Hilda Heina, President, Marshall Islands.
On November 5, will the US choose a female President, for the first time – or slide into chaos with a leader widely described as ‘weird’? Stay tuned.
Oh, and, regarding the title: OK, so it comes from a movie about how cats take over the world, and dogs fight back. It’s the cats’ mantra. Cats rule, dogs drool. Kind of true, though….
At Last: A Reliable Diagnostic for Alzheimers
By Shlomo Maital
Can Alezheimer’s (a form of dementia, caused by plaque that gums up the brain’s neurons and interconnections) be diagnosed early – before even symptoms appear?
So far, the only diagnostics are PET scans or invasive spinal taps – not really practical. And those are accurate only 73 % of the time. Primary care doctors? Their early-onset diagnoses are accurate only 61% of the time. So basically, at present, there is no practical accurate tool for diagnosing Alzheimer’s pre-symptoms.
Do we really need an accurate diagnostic? If there is no proven treatment – what good is it? Just ruins the rest of a person’s life?!
Personally – and many disagree – I would want to know. It helps plan the remainder of life, including before symptoms become highly impairing. And to make careful plans for care when symptoms become badly impairing.
Pam Belluck, writing in the New York Times *, reports that a blood test developed in Sweden diagnoses Alzheimer’s 90% of the time. The study was pubishing in the prestigious Journal of the American Medical Association.
* P. Belluck. NewYork Times, July 28, 2024.
A Swedish doctor, Dr. Oskar Hansson, said, “if you detect Alzheimer’s in the person without cognitive impairment, there’s no therapies to offer.” So he does not recommend it.
How does the blood test work? It focuses on a protein, called tau, that sprouts into tangles in the brain – a protein called ptau-217. The blood test’s accuracy was highest with patients in a pre-dementia stage called mild cognitive impairment, but it was not very accurate with the earliest stage, subjective cognitive decline, when ptients begin to perceive their memory is failing. (Hey – what senior does NOT perceive this?!). Many people with subjective perceived cognitive decline do NOT in fact have Alzheimer’s. And at this stage, the amount of the tau protein is likely very small.
I think the main virtue of this test is to help screen candidates for Stage 1,2 and 3 clinical trials of Alzheimer’s drugs that combat the amyloid plaque in our brains. Catching it early before the plaque does damage is vital. Finding such subjects can be greatly helped by this Swedish test.
Snail! Pull Over! You Exceeded the Speed Limit: 0.006 mph!
By Shlomo Maital
Leave it to the Brits to organize an Olympics…for snails! I find this more interesting than many of the boring events in Paris (e.g. archery!). The New York Times * reports that in the rural village of Congham, dozens of garden snails with huge aspirations gathered to compete in the World Snail Racing Championships!
* Emily Anthes. “Ready Steady Slow: Championship Snail Racing at 0.006 mph”, July 25, NYT
The course is 13.5 inches long – just over a foot. The world record is, 2 minutes flat, to complete the course. That comes to 0.006 mph.
With brilliant British understatement, Nicholas Dickinson (a race organizer) said, “it isn’t the greatest spectator sport in the world.”
I’m not sure. NBC pays billions of dollars for TV rights to broadcast, at the Winter Olympics, …curling! People chasing a chunk of marble down an ice rink, sweeping ahead of it with brooms. (I’ll take the snails any time).
Britain has lots of weird competitions. Bog snorkeling, worm charming. The snail Olympics dates back to the 1960s. The event celebrates the common garden snail, now globally widespread. (Will snails be around still, after we humans pollute our planet to death?) Some 85 snails competed in the event, on a piece of damp fabric draped over a table. Each snail began the race inside the smaller of two concentric circles in the center. The winner was the first snail to traverse the 13.5 inch expanse and reach the outer circle.
“Ready…steady…slow!” said the race starter. And..off they went!
Last year’s winner, big bruiser Jeff, took the lead and never gave it up. After four minutes and five seconds, it was official. Jeff defended his title. Well done, Jeff. Jeff of course left a slime trail…all snails do that.
Nicholas Dickinson said, “..we do take this very, very seriously. But we also recognize that it is slightly bonkers.”
Kudos, Mr. Dickinson. No more bonkers than a lot of other things going on now in our crazy world!
Why It Is So Hard to Lose Weight
By Shlomo Maital
Biochemists have finally, I believe, cracked the problem of weight loss – Why is it so hard to lose weight, when some overweight people exercise strenuously, diet fiercely – and their weight remains the same?
It is related to the body’s metabolism, and to differences in how our cells metabolize sugar and energy – specifically, the mitochondria, the little ‘motors’ inside our cells that consume ‘fuel’ to provide energy for our body’s cells.
A molecule known as pgc1-alpha regulates this process. Turns out – there are 3 ‘flavors’ of it; pgc1-alpha A, B and C. The A flavor regulates long-term energy burning – over time. The B and C flavors regulate the short-term – after a strenuous workout, how fast we burn energy to fuel it. Some people, it emerges, simply have a shortfall of B and C. And B and C are up to 10 times more powerful, in metabolizing fat, than A.
There is a tendency to blame overweight people, believing they lack will power or determination. It turns out not to be the case. It is a matter of differences in how our bodies metabolize fats and carbohydrates.
Let’s show some understanding for those who struggle with obesity – make Herculean efforts, and still remain obese.
For reference: see:
What Divides Us?
By Shlomo Maital
Let’s face it. Societies everywhere, worldwide, seem more divided and divisive than ever. Far left and far right dominate in France’s elections. The political middle seems to be emptying, as people flock to extremes. Democracy seems to crumble. The politics of identity divides us into tribes, rather than citizens with shared values.
What is the cause?
Harvard political scientist Robert Putnam wrote a book, Bowling Alone, 25 years ago, that identified growing loneliness and isolation in society. Recently, he has a new book out, and has been interviewed widely on his findings.* Putnam takes long historical view, for the US. In the early 1900’s, there was enormous inequality, isolation, division. This declined steadily, until the 1950’s and 1960’s, when unity peaked – and began to decline, rapidly. Today we are back to the 1900’s in terms of unity.
- The Upswing: How America Came Together a Century Ago and How We Can Do It Again by Robert D. Putnam and Shaylyn Romney Garrett
Why?
Putnam observes that there are two ways that people come together. One, he calls ‘bonding’ – joining with those like us, in race, religion, ethnicity. A second is ‘bridging’ — joining with those UNLIKE us, in race, religion, ethnicity.
Bonding is a response to alienation and loneliness. Find others like us, in values, and bond with them, against those unlike us. This is divisive, dividing, friction-making. And it can become the antithesis, or enemy, of bridging.
Bridging is in huge decline. Politicians use bonding as their springboard to winning votes. And they build bonding on the precise opposite of bridging – by attacking those from opposing political parties, those who are ‘different’. The ‘other’ becomes an object of hatred, rather than understanding and empathy.
Putnam sees a cycle in this – an inverse U-curve. Will we bottom out on this? Will we hit bottom and return to respecting and honoring one another, to building bridges rather than digging Grand Canyons?
I hope so.
Healthy …and Happy!
By Shlomo Maital
OK, so, I am an economist, the last person in the world to take advice from – especially in the realm of healthcare.
For what it’s worth –
This is my theory about good health, gleaned from many years of observations of people around me.
The body has an amazing immune system, very good at fighting illness and fending off invading germs and viruses. I think our immune systems, like our general good health and fitness, depend crucially on our frame of mind. Depression, stress, worry, aggravation, deep grief, all those weaken our immune system.
So I believe that a happy, positive, optimistic frame of mind is crucial for our body’s defense to remain strong and up to par. I have seen so many people succumb, after grieving and sinking into gloom. And I think the link is with our body’s immune system. If you are despondent and your will to live and thrive has diminished, why then should your body remain in fighting shape? It is like a prizefighter, who has retired from the ring and grows obese. If he returned to the ring, an amateur could defeat him.
But – don’t take my word for it. Check this out:
Autoimmunity Reviews. Volume 5, Issue 8, October 2006, Pages 523-527 “The immune system and happiness”. Yoram Barak.
“Human ability to experience negative and positive emotions has an evolutionary perspective and the presence of feelings designed to influence behavior should thus be reflected in physiological and immune interactions. Emotions are intimately involved in the initiation or progression of cancer, HIV, cardiovascular disease, and autoimmune disorders. The specific physiological responses induced by pleasant stimuli were recently investigated with the immune and endocrine systems being monitored when pleasant stimuli such as odors and emotional pictures were presented to subjects. The results revealed that an increase in secretory immunoglobulin A and a decrease in salivary cortisol were induced by pleasant emotions.”
mRNA: Cure-All?
By Shlomo Maital
For decades, perhaps centuries, medical science has sought to find drugs that mitigate or cure disease. At last, an innovation has been born. Instead – help the body’s immune system itself fight the invading disease.
The breakthrough is in large part due to a chance conversation. U. of Pennsylvania immunologist Drew Weissman met a biochemist Katalin Kariko, an immigrant to the US from Hungary, at the photocopy machine. They commiserated about lack of funding for their RNA research. Kariko had been working on RNA therapy for brain diseases and strokes, finding a decade-long stonewall by ‘experts’ who denied her funding. Weissman, who studied vaccines, supported her research in his lab. Together they won the 2023 Nobel Prize.
Here is their basic idea. RNA is ribonucleic acid. mRNA (messenger RNA) is a template for producing proteins – in turn, vital for the body’s health. Inside the cell, mRNA initiates production of specific proteins.
What if you could introduce mRNA to the body, that produced a protein that signalled ‘disease!!!!’, e.g. a protein from the COVID virus ‘spike’ protein? The body would respond by producing antibodies – absorbing the mRNA into the cell, and the triggering the antibody production to fight the protein, hence the disease, and perhaps prevent it.
Whacko idea? Sure. Problem is, whenever any strange substance enters the body, it is destroyed by the body’s immune system very quickly. How in the world do you smuggle mRNA into the cell – so it can do its blessed work? Weissman and Kariko worked on this for years…while battling to gain funding from the skeptics.
They made a breakthrough. Wrap the mRNA in lipid (fat) nanoparticles. The lipid molecule protects the delicate mRNA, until it can reach the desired destination within cells. Weissman and Kariko proved the concept with animals. They published their results, and vaccine companies (Moderna and BioNTech) quickly took up the cudgel, along (later) with giant Pfizer.
The resulting mRNA COVID vaccine saved many millions of lives. Seven million people have died so far from COVID! How many more would have died, had it not been for the mRNA vaccine?
Now, scientists are realizing this may be almost a cure-all. Introduce with mRNA a protein that is common to an illness (e.g. a cancer tumor?), and spur the body to fight this invader by producing antibodies, that can destroy the invading cancer! Rather than, say, chemotherapy, which essentially is high-powered poison!
Thanks to the stubborn persistence of Weissman and Kariko, we may eventually have a powerful new weapon against cancer. This is how science advances – wild ideas confront stonewall opposition, until persistence, dogged hard work and brilliant creativity create a breakthrough.
And by the way – Kariko is an immigrant – and so are 40% of the US Nobel Prize winners, in chemistry, physics and medicine, since 2000.
Carpenter Ants as Surgeons
By Shlomo Maital
Sometimes, the incredible innovative power of evolution/natural selection knocks my socks off. Here is an example, from today’s New York Times. *
* Annie Roth. “Videos show ants amputating nest mates’ legs to save their lives”. July 2.
The life of carpenter ants is brutal, she reports. They forage, often encounter rival ants, and engage in warfare, returning wounded, often with leg injuries. Those injuries can be fatal, as the bacteria that infect the wound spread rapidly and kill the little ant.
But, as Biden says, “here’s the thing”. Graduate student Dany Buffat filmed carpenter ants amputing the legs of wounded nest mates, with the wounded ant’s full compliance. Ants have lots of legs, they can spare one – and the amputation prevents infection and death.
Wait. How in the world do these tiny ants, with microscopic brains, know how and when to amputate, like world class surgeons?
The amputated ants survive 90% of the time, as opposed to zero % when no amputation occurs.
Is this amazing? IS it all explained by evolution? Is this learned behavior?
Not only does the surgeon-ant amputate. When the leg drops off, the wounded ant presents the stump and the surgeon-ant licks and cleans it!
As the Book of Proverbs counsels: Go to the ant..and be wise.
No, You Don’t Need to Win ‘Em All!
By Shlomo Maital
Roger Federer, tennis great, recently gave the Commencement address at Dartmouth. There are tons of such speeches these days, as graduation ceremonies proliferate – but Federer’s got special attention.
Here is the essence: Federer quit school at 16 to turn pro, and went on to win 20 Grand Slams! In his career, he won 80% of the matches in which he played. But in terms of points, he won only 54%! That is, his opponents won 46% of the points played against Federer.
How can this be?
So, Federer notes, you do not need to win every point, just a bit more than half, to be a champion. And most important — you do need to win the key points, like set points and match points, which he tended to do.
We do not need to win them all. Just a bit over half.
In terms of investing: We play against pros, and are amateurs. We can’t win that match. Buy and hold. The rising tide of the market will boost your assets. If you try to play against the pros, who have information we do not, you will not win 54%, or even 45%. They will win. Churning your portfolio just racks up commissions for Wall St. Why do that?
In terms of life: Do not despair when you lose. Focus on the ‘matches’ that are really crucial, and try to win like Federer, just over half. Then you will be a champion.
TIMnovate 