2047

March 12, 2025 in Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

2047: We Were Warned

By Shlomo Maital

  Twelve years ago, the leading science journal Nature published an unusual article.  It was the result of a class project, led by Dr. Camilo Mora,  University of Hawaii.  Mora and students did this: 

     “They divided the earth into a grid, with each cell representing 386 square miles. Averaging the results from the 39 climate models, they calculated a date they called “climate departure” for each location — the date after which all future years were predicted to be warmer than any year in the historical record for that spot on the globe. The results suggest that if emissions of greenhouse gases remain high, then after 2047, more than half the earth’s surface will experience annual climates hotter than anything that occurred between 1860 and 2005, the years for which historical temperature data and reconstructions are available.”

    The students used models operated by 21 research centers in 12 countries, all of them publicly available.

     The New York Times’ Justin Gillis wrote about it, under the headline: “By 2047, Coldest Years May be Warmer than Hottest in Past, Scientists Say”.#

       My wife and I have five great-grandchildren.  By 2047, they will be graduating from college, finding a spouse, and beginning their working lives.  The planet in which they do this will be hotter than hell.   The coldest day will be warmer than the hottest in the past.  The hottest day?   Words fail me. 

       Most attention now is being paid to the melting of the Arctic icecap.  But the 2013 paper showed that the greatest impact of global warming will occur in the tropics, near the equator.  

       The tropics constitute 40% of Earth’s surface area and contain 36% of Earth’s landmass. It is home to 40% of the world’s population, projected to reach 50% by 2047.

        The tropics are also where I and our great-grandchildren live – in Israel, only some 2,000 miles north of the equator.

         The generations, including mine, that did this to our planet and to our descendants can no longer prevent it, but only mitigate it, maybe slightly.  And the Big Oil big bucks that pump the media use the fossil fuel billions to perpetuate the problem.

          It we truly love our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren – how in the world have we done this to them?   

# New York Times, Oct. 10, 2013, Section A, Page 10.

Europe Is in (Big) Trouble

March 11, 2025 in Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

 Europe Is In (Big) Trouble

By Shlomo Maital

         US trade deficit   (top)    EU trade deficit (bottom)

    In her NYT Op-Ed today, March 10, Karen Karniol-Tambour clarifies President Trump’s murky tariff quirks.#  I find the above diagrams helpful, along with her analysis and my own. The top diagram shows the US trade deficit (exports minus imports) since 1990, and the bottom one, the EU’s trade deficit, split between a large and growing surplus in its US trade, and a growing and very large deficit in its China trade.  (Bottom diagram:  Black is export surplus with the US; Red is import surplus with China).  Source: Visual Capitalist.

     Since 1990, and actually since 1970, the United States has consumed more than it produced.  It does this by buying stuff abroad.  To pay for it, it borrows and goes into debt. It can do this, because US money, the dollar, is the world currency and those who earn the dollars are willing to hold them or turn them into US bonds.  (If you or tried this, it would not take long to go broke. When the US does it, it can print the money to enable it.) The infusion of US demand in the world economy has made Asia, specifically China, wealthy.  There are 400 Chinese billionaires!  In a Communist nation!  But it also helped Europe.  The EU sells more to the US than it buys. 

      Most of what the US consumes, above what it makes, is manufactured goods, mostly from China, but also, from Mexico, Vietnam, Japan and Germany.

      The US gave away its manufacturing to China and the rest of the world, under Clinton, Bush, Obama…and Trump (2016-2020).  Trump thinks it can return, by imposing high tariffs on imports.  It will make us a fortune, he says.  If it does, it means that imports remain very high.  So – forget US manufacturing.  If it doesn’t make a fortune, it means that imports become very expensive and import inflation, not just Chinese EV’s. 

      China has had 25 years to build its manufacturing supremacy.  In a country that controls the economy directly.  To get its manufacturing back, the US will need at least 25 years, probably more, in a free market economy, if, IF, all the right policies are put in place.  But …of course, they are not.  Tariffs are not the answer.

      The EU is in huge trouble.  For two reasons.  Defense. And Economy.

       Defense:  The US is throwing Europe and Ukraine under the Russian bus.  After years of sponging off the US $850 billion defense budget, Europe now has to defend itself.  That will take large resources and a lot of time.  And Russia is knocking on the door right now.  The next few years will be very dangerous for Europe.

        Economy:   The US wants to shut down its big trade deficit with the EU.  IF it does, through tariffs, it will hurt the EU economy, with Germany already in recession or nearly so.  Meanwhile, the EU has a large and growing trade deficit in manufactures with China.  Europe’s car industry is in desperate trouble.  With technology shifting to electric vehicles, China is swamping the world with its EV’s, and Europe is way way behind.  So Europe faces big challenges from BOTH the US and from China.

          The economies of the US,  EU, and China are roughly equal in size, and comprise 75% of world GDP.  All three have big problems.  China has a bloated construction, real estate and finance sector, deep in debt.  US has an unpredictable president with wrong-headed ‘quick fixes’ that really are quick disasters.  EU needs a rapid, smart, strategic U-turn, very unlikely in a group of 27 countries where you need unanimity to do anything – and outliers like Hungary are happy to put up roadblocks.

           The US gave away its manufacturing to China, under four presidents, Democrats and Republicans.  You cannot have a strong healthy growing economy without making stuff.  The US stock markets are reflecting this.

      Because the US consumed much more than it made, it has a heavy burden of debt, 110% of its GDP,  and a trillion dollars in interest alone.  And as Trump slashes taxes, the budget deficit grows and with it, US debt.

      EU enjoyed trade surpluses with the US, offsetting in part its trade deficit with China.  The US under Trump wants to end that. 

         In a EU economy already slowing, and with a Russian army on its flank, and with EU technology trailing that of the US and China, the EU is in deep hot water.

         And, when 75% of the world economy is in some degree of trouble – we are all of us in hot water.

         Friends:  Set aside a bit more in saving.  You may need it. 

      # “This Is Who Loses in a Trade War.  Karen Karniol-Tambour, New York Times, March 10, 2025.   The author is co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater, an investment management company.

How Israel Lost America

March 8, 2025 in Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

How Israel Lost America

By Shlomo Maital

      OK, I admit it – I’m a numbers guy.  Like, an economist who says the obvious in words and numbers that are incomprehensible.

      So, how about this.  A February Gallup Poll shows that only 46% of Americans sympathize more with Israel than Palestinians.  Among independents: 42%. Among Democrats:  21 per cent!     And this, after Hamas (who are also Palestinians) murder, rape and burn Israeli civilians, including babies.

      A decade ago, 62% of Americans sympathized more with Israel than with the Palestinians. 

      Ouch.  Israel lost America. 

       Correction:  Prime Minister Netanyahu did.

        Why?

      More numbers.  Netanyahu has been Prime Minister of Israel from March 31, 2009  to now,  March 8, 2025 (the date I am writing this) —  that is 5,821 days  — except for a short period, June 31 2021 – Dec. 29 2022,  564 days, less than two years, when “Yamina’ (Naftali Bennett) and “Yesh Atid” (Yair Lapid) formed the government. 

        Since March 31, 2009, Netanya has been in power for 90% of the time.  He has 90% of the blame for the disasters that befell Israel in that time – including the dramatic loss of support among Americans.   During that time, Hamas built its military forces and the network of tunnels.  On Netanyahu’s watch.

        OK, Trump likes Israel.  For now.

        To rehash an old Nixon saw:   Would you buy a used car from Trump?  Or a new car?   Greenland?   Canada?  Panama? 

             After the Yom Kippur War in October 1973,  Prime Minister Golda Meir accepted responsibility and resigned in six months.  The Agranat  State Judicial Investigatory Committee was formed and made sweeping recommendations. 

         Netanyahu doggedly blocks forming such a committee, knowing it will find him deeply complicit in the October 7 disaster.  He has acted in a manner that has alienated many Democratic voters — and when President Biden supported Bibi, he lost many of his Democratic voters. Perhaps enough to lose the 2024 election.

              Netanyahu got Israel Trump — and maybe, got America Trump.  But he lost Israel, Americans. And much of the world.

              For people who love freedom, democracy, justice, honesty, truth and humanity – a really really bad deal.

Gum Disease

March 6, 2025 in Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

Gum Disease & Alzheimer’s: A Surprising Connection

By Shlomo Maital

  A study led by Prof. Gabriel Nussbaum, Faculty of Dental Medicine, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, reveals a curious connection between gum disease and Alzheimer’s.  It is reported by the daily Jerusalem Post.

  Here is the story.

  Porphyromonas gingivalis,  the microbe that causes gum disease (e.g. gingivitis) is a germ that thrives in inflamed oral tissue in our mouths.  Unlike most microbes, that thrive on sugars, it lives on proteins and on the iron in red blood cells.  It  feeds on the plaque and on the bleeding gums that arise when our gums are infected and ailing.  Bleeding gums are like lunch or supper for it. 

    This insidious little bug has a magical trick.  It uses a protein to fight the body’s immune system.  The protein is called CD47.  When the body has an infection, anywhere, e.g. our gums, it sends white blood cells to fight – part of our immune system.  But this sneaky microbe, porphyromonas, has figured out how to defeat the white blood cells, and moreover, actually make them worsen the infection and gum bleeding, worsening the inflammation. 

    Sneaky!   Gosh, what evolution can come up with!

     But – what in the world does this have to do with Alzheimer’s?

      Alzheimer’s is characterized by sticky plaque that gums up our brains and ultimately shuts it down.  It seems likely that the microbes that infect our gums spread to our brains, and “drive macrophage cells into a pro-inflammation stage, generating plaque rather than preventing it.” 

          Macrophage cells are cells in our brain that comprise our active immune defense to protect our brains from microbes and other bad things.  They make up fully 10% of the total number of cells in our brain.  Makes sense —  Evolution has evolved to protect our brains – but porphyromonas gingivalis may have figured out a defense against the defense.

        What is the action item here?   Seniors —  healthy teeth and gums are really important for overall health.  We’ve known this for ages.  But now, we may see some real science that connects our gums and teeth with our brains. 

        Have your teeth cleaned regularly by a dental hygienist, so plaque doesn’t form and cause gingivitis.  Maybe every six months or so.  If your gums do bleed, see a periodontist.  Your brain will say, thank you.

Rosalind Franklin: DNA Pioneer

March 6, 2025 in Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

 Rosalind Franklin: DNA Pioneer

By Shlomo Maital

Photo 51: The Structure of DNA

          Rosalind Franklin.  

          Rosalind …who?  

          This, below, is from King’s College, London:

         “The discovery of the structure of DNA in 1953 was enabled by Dr Rosalind Franklin’s X-ray diffraction work at King’s.  Dr Franklin joined the laboratory of John Randall at King’s in 1950 with a PhD from Cambridge and X-ray diffraction experience in Paris.

      “At King’s, by controlling the water content of the DNA specimens, she showed that the molecule could exist in two forms (A and B). In May 1952 she and PhD student Ray Gosling captured the image of the B form that supported the modelling of DNA – ‘photo 51’.

       “Photo 51 is one of the world’s most important photographs, demonstrating the double-helix structure of deoxyribonucleic acid: the molecule containing the genetic instructions for the development of all living organisms. Franklin’s image confirmed James Watson and Francis Crick of the University of Cambridge’s hypothesis that DNA had a double helical structure, enabling them to build the first correct model of the DNA molecule in 1953.”

    “A paper by Franklin and Gosling, together with one by Dr Maurice Wilkins and colleagues from King’s, accompanied the announcement of Watson and Crick’s momentous discovery in Nature in May 1953.”

      Franklin’s paper was largely ignored.  Watson and Crick’s discovery was a sensation.

      But it was Franklin’s amazing photograph that was crucial.  Photo 51 showed a clear X-ray diffraction pattern of DNA, and revealed structural features of DNA vital for understanding DNA´s three-dimensional structure.  She managed to produce the sharp photograph shown above by figuring out how to control the amount of water in the DNA sample – water blurred the photograph. 

       As a woman, as a very young woman, and as a scientist very early in her career, she was marginalized by the powerful male scientists who dominated the field.  True, the Nobel citation for Crick and Watson mentioned her contribution – but she died of ovarian  cancer four years before Watson/Crick’s Nobel.   And it is Watson and Crick who have reaped the glory. 

        In the history of the Nobel Prize, 894 men have won it and 64 women.  Even though women are half the population. Women are 50% of the population, and won 6% of the Nobels. 

           Science is a demanding field of research, largely dominated by men.  Fewer women choose this field, and those that do are often marginalized by the men who run and rule the labs.  Like Rosalind Franklin.

           Things are changing… but not fast enough.

How to Get to the Root of the Problem

March 6, 2025 in Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

How to Get to the Root of the Problem

By Shlomo Maital

       Let’s say you have a tough problem.  You want to get to the root of the cause. 

       But how?

       Ask a five-year old.

        Really.  Ask a kid.  Because – they get to the root of things, by the method of ‘rood cause analysis’,  RCA, used widely by systems experts diagnosing crashes, by computer engineers designing software…  in general, by the hi-tech experts. 

        The method was used eons ago by kids, long before silicon.  It’s called “the 7 Question Path to Enlightenment”. 

          Here’s a fictional conversation with one of my grandchildren.

           Why are there people on Earth?  Because they descended from primates, monkeys and apes. Why are there primates?  They too descended, from other mammals, through evolution. Why are there other mammals?  Well, see, this fish figured out how to move from the sea, breathing oxygen through its gills, to the land, breathing air through lungs. Where did the fish come from?  It began with single cell living things, created by a combination of the right chemicals in a warm sea.  Where did those single cell things come from?  From the oceans, created when the Earth cooled from boiling, and when rain began to fall.     Why didn’t the oceans just evaporate, as they did on Mars?  Gravity. What causes gravity?  And what is it? … Uh….

          There we have it.  The root cause.  Life on Earth, because of…gravity.  But..what in the world is gravity?  Truth is, we do not truly know how gravity works or what it really is – Einstein’s theory of relativity is a start.

           Root cause?  Overweight?  Out of shape?  Tired?   Financial problems?  Ask why.  And then again.  And again.  Either you get to a dead end…or the root cause.  And even dead ends sometimes are very helpful, right?  They tell us what we need to explore in depth more thoroughly. 

Trudeau Socks IT To Trump

March 4, 2025 in Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

 Trudeau Socks It To Trump

By Shlomo Maital

    I just watched Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sock it to Trump, a week before he leaves office.  “Very smart”, Trudeau described Trump – but “ very dumb” to slap 25% tariffs on Canadian goods.   Dumb, because the US and Canadian economies are highly integrated, through a trade agreement negotiated by Trump himself, in his first term.  This is especially true of the automobile industry; a US car exec said this 25% US tariff on Canadian imports will “blow a big hole” in the US industry. 

    Trudeau is retaliating with 25% tariffs on a wide range of US imports.

     Let’s face it.  The US has a problem.  It has imported about $50 b. more in goods per month than it exported, up to 2020.  Since then, that monthly deficit has doubled, to about $100 b. a month.  The US now has a $1.2 annual  trillion trade deficit.  Only the US can live so far beyond its means – because it pays in dollars, the international money, and it can create dollars (through credit) and borrow dollars by selling bonds to foreigners, who accumulate dollars through trade surpluses (e.g. China).

        The US exports $349 b. yearly to the US, and iimports $412.7 b.  That is a deficit of about $63 b., or just over 5% of America’s overall deficit.  Mexico exports $505.3 b. to the US, and imports $334 b.  That is a US trade deficit of $171 b., or just under 15% of America’s overall trade deficit.

         China and the European Union are the big ones. China’s trade surplus with the US is $295.4 b., or 25% of the total US deficit, and the EU has a $235 b. trade surplus with the US, or roughly 20%. 

         What do these numbers mean?  The US has leveraged the fact that the dollar is the world’s currency, to live beyond its means, buy much more than it sells abroad, and borrows to pay for it.  America spends more in interest on its national debt than it spends on defense — $1 trillion!  

         Trump has a quick fix.  Tariffs.  Why won’t this work?  Why is it dumb?  He tariffs Canada at 25%. Canada responds in the same way.  So nothing changes – US exports and Canadian exports each get 25% more costly, meaning their relative prices remain the same.  So all that happens, is that US exports to Canada and Canadian exports to the US both decline, because they are more expensive – but no advantage accrues to either country.  Trade declines.  Both countries lose.  Prices go up in each country. 

          There is a way to deal with the fact that the US has lived far beyond its means for years.  Invest in education.  In infrastructure. In productivity. In modernizing factories.  In becoming more efficient and competitive.  That takes government investment and smart policies, and a long run policy.  Biden began, with an infrastructure bill that brought semiconductor factories to the US (Trump took credit on TV for bringing Taiwan’s powerhouse TSMC to the US, but that was done under Biden). 

           Tonight, in his speech to Congress, Trump will blame everybody else but the US for its trade deficit.  But it is the US itself that is responsible.  It has fallen far behind, by building a consumption society (70% of GDP), while China built an investment economy (nearly a third of GDP). 

          China is an ant.  America is the grasshopper.  It’s pretty simple.  And pretty obvious.  But – expect half of Americans to buy Trump’s snake oil pitch tonight and applaud him. 

          It’s a shame.

Oligarchs

March 3, 2025 in Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

When  Oligarchs Rule

By Shlomo Maital

From “X”

Oligarchs?  A small cabal of wealthy people who run the country, control its wealth, and dominate its leadership?

Let’s run the numbers.

     The US has 813 billionaires.  One of them, Elon Musk, has net worth of $359.4 billion.   Musk gave Trump an estimated $270 million for his campaign.  That is less than one tenth of one per cent of his wealth.  It bought him control of the US political system and dominance over Trump.  Good deal.

       Other US billionaires have shifted rapidly from supporting honesty, truth, and fairness, and equality and inclusion,  to the opposite, e.g. Zuckerberg and Bezos.

         It has happened before in history.  In Russia.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1990/91, the Russian leadership distributed shares to the people, as part of a plan to privatize and revitalize the economy.  Oligarchs bought up the shares for pennies, using bank loans – and quickly gained control of Russia’s oil, gas, nickel, steel and other industries.  Putin co-opted them, terrorized them – and together, they did a deal – Putin became a dictator, for life, in return for letting the oligarchs retain their wealth – and sharing a big share of it (in secret) with Putin.

         India has 200 billionaires.  India is said to be the world’s biggest democracy.  India does hold elections, free and fair, regularly. But india’s Prime Minister Modi has shown autocratic tendencies, and the amount of abysmal poverty and income and wealth inequality in India is enormous. 

           China has 400 billionaires.  China!  The country run by the Chinese Communist Party.  As in Russia, the Chinese billionaires are on a tight leash.  Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma was reined in by China’s dictator, a chunk of his wealth confiscated, and since then he has almost disappeared.  The remaining billionaires are compliant and acquiescent.

        How come so many billionaires?  The system the US built after WWII, the Bretton Woods Agreement, opened the world to the free flow of money, goods, ideas, people, everything.  IT created huge wealth – and enormous abysmal poverty for those unable to participate in the party.  This led to a wave of migration – and the rise of far right politics in the West, including, now, in Germany.  

          The Bible calls for a Jubilee Year – in the 50th year, debts are forgiven, and assets return to their original owners.  Restart.  We desperately need a Jubilee Year in the world.  But, even asking billinaires to pay their fair share of income taxes is today impossible – and Trump is about to gift them with a huge tax cut, ballooning the US deficit that is already alarming.  The US already pays more in interest payments on its debt than it spends on defense ($1 trillion!). 

           You could see this coming.  Nothing good can ever come out of extremes of wealth and poverty.  It seems that the system has to crash before it can be rebuilt.

           Financial markets are already very nervous.  I advise carefully weighing how a financial collapse might affect your income and savings – and take steps to protect them. 

Why Women Live Longer

March 1, 2025 in Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

Why Women Live Longer

By Shlomo Maital  

       Biologists and scientists in general know a lot.  But there still remain many mysteries in our universe that are unsolved.

       Here is one.   In 175 countries out of the 178 that keep demographic records,  women outlive men, in life expectancy.  In Israel:  84.7 years (women),  80.7 (men).   In the US:   80 for women, 76 for men.  The four-year gap seems like a small one, but it is actually very large.   And it exists for life expectancy at age 5, and also at age 50. 

        Why do women outlive men?  Here are the theories.  Women suffer less from heart disease, strokes and cancer.  Why?  Maybe:  They have estrogen, which seems to help the immune system.    Women drink less alcohol and smoke less.   Women tend to visit doctors more often for checkups.  

           And —   women have two XX chromosomes, men have one X and one Y.  The double XX  provides some redundancy, in case one X is damaged,  and the X chromosome seems related to immunological strength. 

            At conception, 108 embryos are male compared to every 100 that are female.  Why?  We don’t know.  At birth, 105 males are born to every 100 females.  So,  more male embryos die before birth than female.   More males are born, but they live shorter lives. 

            There is a major social program that derives from the fact that women live longer.  At ages 65, 70 and older, there are many more widows than widowers.  Some are blessed with nearby children and grandchildren.  And with friends and social groups.  But many are not.  They are lonely and isolated. 

            And related to that loneliness:  Many elderly women are not in good health.  Because —   women suffer more morbidity (ill health) than men do,  yet live longer.  We do not know why.   Women have more ill health, yet live longer, because they do not die from their illnesses. Why?

             Readers:  Any ideas?  

New Eyes

February 11, 2025 in Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

My New Eyes: Thanks to Patricia Bath

By Shlomo Maital  

Dr. Patricia Bath

   On December 22 and again on January 19, I got new eyes.

    A skilled surgeon removed the clouded lenses in my eyes, and replaced them with new plastic ones.  The anasthesia was local, so I watched the whole thing in real time. It was fascinating.

     A little laser robot carefully approached my eye, made a tiny incision in the cornea (the cells of the cornea are unique, they are made to grow back quickly, in case the cornea is scratched or damaged – a gift from evolution) and inserted a small collapsed lens, which then unfolds.  The laser robot is very precise and rarely, very rarely, errs.

      Later, I learned whom to thank – apart from the brilliant and experienced surgeon, Dr. Avi A.   Thank you, Dr. Patricia Bath, a pioneering African-American ophthalmologist, surgeon, and inventor.  Here is her story, from Wikipedia:

             “In 1986, Bath conducted research in the laboratory of Danièle Aron-Rosa, a pioneer researcher in lasers and ophthalmology at Rothschild Eye Institute of Paris and then at the Laser Medical Center in Berlin, where she was able to begin early studies in laser cataract surgery, including her first experiment with excimer laser photoablation using human eye bank eyes.   Bath coined the term “laser phaco” for the process, short for laser photo-ablative cataract surgery and developed the laser phaco probe, a medical device that improves on the use of lasers to remove cataracts, and “for ablating and removing cataract lenses”. Bath first had the idea for this type of device in 1981, but did not apply for a patent until several years later. The device was completed in 1986 after Bath conducted research on lasers in Berlin and patented in 1988, making her the first African-American woman to receive a patent for a medical purpose.”

        I need not recount the many many ceilings Dr. Bath had to break through, to achieve success. 

           Wish I could thank her in person. And so do millions of people.  Cataract surgery is the most routinely performed surgical procedure of all, with 7 million surgeries performed per year in Europe, 3.7 million in the United States, and 20 million worldwide.    Since its first introduction,  phacoemulsification cataract surgery (PCS) has become the standard of care, mainly done by laser.

          If you are elderly and your vision is becoming poor, see an ophthalmologist – and if cataract surgery is recommended, don’t be afraid.  In many cases, it is life changing. In order for our brains to continue to function well, we need good vision.  20 million people worldwide testify to this.  That little robot laser is really really good at what it does.

      I wish this expensive device could be provided widely to poor countries.  One study in northern India showed that between 53% and 60% of those with cataracts are untreated.    

Blog entries written by Prof. Shlomo Maital

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