The End of the Beginning

By Shlomo Maital

   There is evidence that, to quote Winston Churchill, “we are not at the beginning of the end, the end of the beginning.” Here are the daily totals of new cases worldwide, thanks to, and next to them, the % daily change:

3-Apr 101736
4 84821 -16.6 %
5 71502 -15.7
6 74044 3.6
7 85116 15.0
8 84447 -0.8
9 85638 1.4
10 94629 10.5
11 80963 -14.4
12 72523 -10.4
13 71572 -1.3
14 73969 3.3

What this looks like, is a kind of ‘plateau’ levelling off — as the coronavirus spread globally, some countries were afflicted early, others later. So countries will reach their ‘apex’ at differing times… (the US is still not there yet)…. And this will produce a kind of plateau worldwide.

   The reason this is important, is this — countries will begin to emerge from their ‘lockdown’ at different times, some sooner than others. Denmark is opening its kindergartens, China is sending Wuhan back to work in part.

       But in terms of public health, we need to see this as a global system. If there are hot pockets in one country, no country is safe – because a return to normality will restart flights and travel. And we still do not fully understand the duration or extent of coronavirus immunity for those who had it.