Putin & Russia:  Big Time Losers  

By Shlomo Maital  

       It is a rare event when the head of the CIA publishes a long article. When it happens – it is worth paying close attention.  Because as head of the CIA, he knows a great deal more than you and I.

       William Burns has published a long thoughtful article in the March-April issue of Foreign Affairs.*   It is about how he is shifting the CIA’s abilities and activities, to meet the challenge of the Russia-China-Iran axis of evil.  But it is also about Russia’s massive failure in Ukraine.

   Here is the essence, paraphrased. 

     The extensive casualties and material losses suffered by the Russian military are a testament to the miscalculations that underpinned the invasion. Putin’s initial strategy, predicated on a quick and decisive victory, has unraveled, revealing the limitations of Russian military power and the effectiveness of Ukrainian tactics, supported by Western military aid. The destruction of a significant portion of Russia’s pre-war tank inventory and the exposure of its flawed military modernization efforts underscore the strategic and tactical failures of the Russian command.

     Economically, Russia faces a dire future, with long-term repercussions from the war exacerbating its status as a subordinate economic partner to China. The strategic blunders of Putin have not only inflicted immediate economic damage but have also compelled Russia into a dependent relationship with China, undermining its global standing. The strengthening of NATO, contrary to Putin’s intentions, marks another strategic miscalculation, as the alliance has emerged more cohesive and determined in the face of Russian aggression.

      Internally, the war has eroded Putin’s authority, with the rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin exposing the cracks within the Russian political facade. This internal turmoil raises questions about Putin’s grip on power and the sustainability of his authoritarian regime. The challenges facing Putin domestically are compounded by the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the international community’s support for Ukraine, challenging the narrative of Russian invincibility.

      In this context, Putin’s reliance on defense production and alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea reflects a desperate bid to regain the initiative. However, this strategy overlooks the enduring resolve of Ukraine and its allies, underestimating the costs of continued aggression and the international resolve to support Ukraine’s sovereignty.

– – – – – – –

     A New York Times report states that Russia has received crucial supplies of weapons from North Korea.  Add to this the Iranian drones.  Russia is now a vassal state of China, crucially dependent on China’s purchase of Russian oil.

     Would you invest in a country whose future is crucially dependent on China, North Korea and Iran?   Putin has no future.  Russia’s future is bleak.

* William Burns.  Spycraft and Statecraft:  Transforming the CIA for an age of competition. Foreign Affairs March-April 2024.