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Why Trump Will Lose Decisively

By Shlomo  Maital   

Lichtman’s 9 Correct Calls

Allan Lichtman is a professor of history at the American University, in Washington DC.  He has predicted correctly the US Presidential Election,  every time,  since Ronald Reagan’s win in 1984.  He does this with a system of 13 ‘keys’, or crucial factors.

     To win, Lichtman says you need a majority of the crucial factors – at least 7 of the 13.  For this election, tomorrow, Lichtman is predicting a Biden win.  Why?  Because Trump is lacking 7 of the 13, and fulfills only 6 of the 13. 

     What is Trump missing?  Here is the list:

Key 1, Mandate Key, because of Republican losses in the midterm elections of 2018. 

Key 5, Short-Term Economic Key, because of an election-year recession.

Key 6, Long-Term Economic Key, because of the sharply negative growth this year.

Key 8, Social Unrest, because of what is raging across the land.

Key 9, Scandal, Trump is only the third American president to be impeached by the full US House of Representatives.

Key 11, Foreign/Military Success, because of the lack of an acclaimed success abroad.

Key 12, Incumbent Charisma, because Trump appeals only to a narrow base.    

     Trump claims he would have won easily had it not been for the pandemic.  Probably true, because of Key 5 and Key 6.  That would have given him 8 keys favorably, out of Lichtman’s 13, and a predicted win. 

      Could Trump have won despite the pandemic?  He could have made it close, by systematically moving beyond his ‘base’ and appealing to a broader audience.  That would only have given 7 of the 13 positives, and a very close election.  But he simply could not give up his self-worshipping narcissistic love of crowds cheering him and wearing red Trump hats.

      Footnote: a Stanford study showed that hundreds probably died, after contracting COVID-19 during crowded Trump rallies in many states, where few wore masks and stood shoulder to shoulder.  For them – Trump has been fatal.

The Obama Excuse

By Shlomo Maital

 Obama

President Obama, and the Democratic Party, appear to be headed for a larger-than-usual mid-term election defeat on Nov. 4, with the Republicans gaining control of the Senate and retaining control of the House.   But for America, this may not (believe it or not) be a bad thing.

   Obama and the Democrats have often used the obstructionist Republican-controlled House as the excuse for their lack of achievements. And indeed, the approval rating of Congress is abysmally low, lower than Obama’s! Americans are simply fed up with Washington and with both political parties.   Contrast this with German Chancellor Merkel’s 78 per cent approval rating, one other leaders can only dream about.

   But a chart in the recent issue of The Economist sheds some light on the Obama excuse. President Ronald Reagan faced a Democratic House and Senate in 1986-88, yet as a lame duck president in his last two years, passed a major tax cut bill. President George H.W. Bush faced a hostile House and Senate in 1988-90. Bill Clinton had a Republican House and Senate in 1994-2000, for fully six of his eight years as president, yet got the U.S. economy rolling. George Bush faced a hostile House and Senate in 2006-8….     And Obama had both House and Senate FOR him in 2008-10, controlled by Democrats, and… achieved, well,   achieved…. Uh…..?  

   To be an effective president and leader, in the face of House and Senate opposition, you need to be very skillful at compromise, at dialogue and at collaboration. Some U.S. presidents were. Obama wasn’t. It is not too late. He may yet learn, and may yet leverage the fact that if the Republicans do win control of Congress, and continue to obstruct, they will be severely blamed by the American electorate, and may lose any chance of regaining the Presidency in 2016.

   In President Lyndon Johnson, America had a president with long long experience in the Senate, who knew how to compromise and how to deal. In President Obama, America has an inexperienced President who is just now beginning to understand how to work with Congress. It has been six wasted years.

Blog entries written by Prof. Shlomo Maital

Shlomo Maital

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