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Why Trump Will Lose Decisively

By Shlomo  Maital   

Lichtman’s 9 Correct Calls

Allan Lichtman is a professor of history at the American University, in Washington DC.  He has predicted correctly the US Presidential Election,  every time,  since Ronald Reagan’s win in 1984.  He does this with a system of 13 ‘keys’, or crucial factors.

     To win, Lichtman says you need a majority of the crucial factors – at least 7 of the 13.  For this election, tomorrow, Lichtman is predicting a Biden win.  Why?  Because Trump is lacking 7 of the 13, and fulfills only 6 of the 13. 

     What is Trump missing?  Here is the list:

Key 1, Mandate Key, because of Republican losses in the midterm elections of 2018. 

Key 5, Short-Term Economic Key, because of an election-year recession.

Key 6, Long-Term Economic Key, because of the sharply negative growth this year.

Key 8, Social Unrest, because of what is raging across the land.

Key 9, Scandal, Trump is only the third American president to be impeached by the full US House of Representatives.

Key 11, Foreign/Military Success, because of the lack of an acclaimed success abroad.

Key 12, Incumbent Charisma, because Trump appeals only to a narrow base.    

     Trump claims he would have won easily had it not been for the pandemic.  Probably true, because of Key 5 and Key 6.  That would have given him 8 keys favorably, out of Lichtman’s 13, and a predicted win. 

      Could Trump have won despite the pandemic?  He could have made it close, by systematically moving beyond his ‘base’ and appealing to a broader audience.  That would only have given 7 of the 13 positives, and a very close election.  But he simply could not give up his self-worshipping narcissistic love of crowds cheering him and wearing red Trump hats.

      Footnote: a Stanford study showed that hundreds probably died, after contracting COVID-19 during crowded Trump rallies in many states, where few wore masks and stood shoulder to shoulder.  For them – Trump has been fatal.

Blog entries written by Prof. Shlomo Maital

Shlomo Maital

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