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Understanding the Brexit Disaster:
Ask the Psychologists!
By Shlomo Maital
I’ve been glued to our TV, for weeks, watching the British debate in Parliament what to do next about Brexit. I’ve watched how the world’s oldest elected Parliament cannot find a majority for anything – except, maybe, NOT to crash out of the EU. I’ve watched how the Trump-like PM Boris Johnson tries to circumvent Parliament, in the name of democracy but instead mortally wounding it. I studied for a year in Manchester, and feel deeply sorry for the people of Britain – and am trying to understand how they got into this pickle.
Enter the psychologists. In the excellent podcast Hidden Brain, by Shankar Vedanta, the Harvard University psychologist Daniel Gilbert was recently interviewed. He spoke about this – we humans are incorrigibly bad at predicting the future,, specifically, in predicting how we will feel in future about a decision made in the present.
The British people voted narrowly (52 for, 48 against) to leave the EU, in 2016. Mainly they voted for “take our country back”, a slogan pushed by pro-Brexit politicians, driven by anger at the flood of migrants crossing the English Channel that under EU rules could not be stopped.
But what about other aspects of leaving the EU? What about the Ireland-Northern Ireland border? What about all the EU citizens living in Britain? What about trade, tariffs, customs? Then-PM David Cameron, who initiated the referendum, never believed it would pass, and never developed realistic future scenarios about how leaving the EU would be done. Former PM Theresa May stubbornly pushed the same leave-EU proposal to Parliament three times – despite zero chance of it passing.
Professor Gilbert explains, basically, that when we make a decision, we are pretty hopeless about predicting how we will feel about it. As the Brits learn more about what leaving the EU means – crashing out with no deal, in particular, as Johnson obsessively wants — I believe they regret their initial vote in 2016. In particular — if only 1.5 per cent of those who voted “leave” now change their mind and would vote ‘stay’ – the referendum would be reversed. Yet — cynics, in the name of democracy, say “the result of a referendum is set in stone” – even though Parliament, elected by the people, can change its mind a dozen times a day, also in the name of democracy.
Basically – people are flawed in how they predict how they will feel about a decision in the future. We know this from the work of psychologists, and from our own introspection.
Conclusion: Do another referendum on “leave or stay”. Take into account that humans are flawed. Give the British people another chance.
But Johnson and pro-Brexit politicians insist this is undemocratic. Wrong.
The 2016 referendum was terribly flawed. The British people were not told the full story. They voted on the basis of a narrow idea, ‘take our country back’. They weren’t told, how precisely this would be done.
So – do it again. Offer clear precise scenarios. And offer a clear ‘leave’ plan, including Ireland.
World’s First & Greatest Democracy: R.I.P.
By Shlomo Maital
This is a very sad, wrenching eulogy for Britain. The world’s first and greatest democracy is at a dead end. Rest in Peace.
I often watch Parliamentary debates on BBC TV, and enjoy the thrust and parry between the Prime Minister and her critics. Democracy at its best.
This is why I am saddened today, when crackpot Boris Johnson will be chosen Conservative Leader, and automatically Prime Minister – by 1% of the British electorate. The other 99% have no say. Why? That’s how the system was set up. It must be changed.
Johnson has vowed to take Britain out of the EU, come what may, by Oct. 31. This implies a ‘hard Brexit’ (exit without a signed agreed deal). Here is what Bloomberg thinks about this option:
The U.K.’s planned exit from the European Union may have already pushed the U.K. into a technical recession, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. In a gloomy set of new forecasts, Niesr predicted that, even assuming a smooth exit in October, the nation will grow 1% in 2019 and 1% in 2020. There’s an around a one-in-four chance that the economy is already shrinking, the think tank said.
Britain may already be in recession, because of Brexit. Not a great time for a crackpot leader.
Crackpot? Isn’t that disrespectful, extreme, exaggerated? No.
Today’s New York Times: “Is Johnson how Britain will end?”
Tackling Britain’s deep divisions requires depth of character, conviction and principle, none of which its incoming prime minister has ever hinted at possessing….he prizes victory above government –his first ambition as a child was to be ‘world king’ – and his political career has been marked by ferocity of campaigning and indifference in office, both as London mayor and foreign secretary…
And another NYT article:
In his pursuit to become prime minister, Mr. Johnson has adapted his old habits – the theatrics, the polysyllabic putdowns, the outlandish plans –for the Brexit era…..his promise to extract Britain from the EU by the end of October has left many Britons worrying he will send the country hurtling toward a potentially calamitous no-deal Brexit.
While Trump ruins America, now Johnson will ruin Britain. Two of the West’s great economies and democracies, heading down the tubes because of a broken democratic process – Russian interference in the US, and an archaic totalitarian system for choosing the Tory leader in the UK.
Very sad.
Yes, Virginia, there IS a Santa Claus – and it’s You!
By Shlomo Maital
One of my Coursera students (Cracking the Creativity Code) writes, in a chat forum,
“I was a college professor who had to retire at age 45 due to illness. I am now 55 and happy. My best advice to you is to branch away from your comfort zone. For instance I was a biostatistician (loved it) and am now a digital artist (self taught, http://gosusan.com). I am bringing the two together through infographics”.
Thank you “Virginia”. You show us that, Yes, Virginia, there IS a Santa Claus – and it is YOU. You have successfully used Stephen Johnson’s clever method, known as the “adjacent possible”. Change your field. Move far enough away to make it interesting and challenging, but not so far away as to be impractical and impossible. When you do this well and successfully, “Santa” showers the gift of energy and passion on you.
The key is to leave your comfort zone. It is super comfortable to remain in that old familiar rut, doing again and again what you always did. Trying new stuff is risky and uncomfortable, because at first you inevitably fail, and many of us are so used to permanent success, we cannot imagine doing anything poorly.
Try an imaginary exercise. Lying in bed at night, before you fall asleep – think to yourself, what could I do, that is different, different enough to be just possible (but hard), not so different as to be clearly unfeasible? Dream it.
Then, do it.
TIMnovate 