How a 16-year-old Helps to Cure Cancer – Why and How High Schools Must Change, and Fast!

August 16, 2019 in Global Crisis Blog, Innovation Blog | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

How a 16-year-old Helps to Cure Cancer –

Why and How High Schools Must Change, and Fast!

By   Shlomo Maital

            Bhavya Mohan (center)

    I am at York University, Toronto, Canada. As a part-time journalist (Jerusalem Report), I’ve interviewed many creative people whose ideas changed the world. But last evening was unique and unforgettable. Because I spoke with Bhavya Mohan, an incredible 16-year-old from Ottawa, Canada, going into Grade 11, who made a breakthrough discovery for treatment of cancer. It won him first prize in Canada’s high school science project competition. He will head to Bulgaria in the Fall to represent Canada at a European science fair contest.

     Bhavya’s project was called “Taking ABiTE out of Cancer: A Novel Aptamer based BiTE for Cancer Immunotherapy”. I’ll try my best to explain it in a moment.

     Bhavya was part of a group of 19 exceptional high school students from across Canada, participating in York University Professor Andrew Maxwell’s “entrepreneurship boot camp”, which leads these young people, in teams, through the startup process, at the Lassonde School of Engineering.

    Today these amazing young people make their final ‘pitches’.  

       It’s hard to believe, but Bhavya’s breakthrough finding is real, and in his research, he really was the Principal Investigator.

       Press accounts stated: “Mohan’s project introduces a novel platform that will improve the human body’s ability to naturally detect and eliminate cancerous cells and be an affordable alternative to current immunotherapies.”

     If you wish, reader, you can skip the next 500 words, my feeble effort to understand Bhavya’s scientific breakthrough.  

       Background: A relatively new approach to treating cancer is based on helping the body’s immune system to kill cancer cells. Cancer cells are clever and are really good at defending against the body’s killer T-cells (that kill invaders).

     For example: “Bi-specific T-cell engagers (BiTEs) are a class of artificial bispecific monoclonal antibodies that are investigated for the use as anti-cancer drugs. They direct a host’s immune system, more specifically the T cells’ cytotoxic activity, against cancer cells.”   In other words, it’s a drug that helps bring the body’s T-cells into contact with cancer cells and kill them. Kind of like a 911 call directing police to a crime scene.

     It can be lifesaving, in treating, for instance, multiple myeloma.

       BiTE is a registered trademark of Micromet AG, a fully owned subsidiary of Amgen Inc., a leading US-based biotech company.

       BiTE treatments are, of course, super-expensive. Bhavya told me, a single dose can cost $4,000 – and you may need a lot of them. By 2030, Bhavya explained, this type of immunological treatment may create a $36 b. market.

       Side-effects: There are two problems with BiTE. One – its cost. Only for the rich. Second: its side effects. The BiTE treatment can lead to an auto-immune response, where the body’s immune system attacks the body itself, and patients die. Now, if you are dying of multiple myeloma, it’s worth the risk. But patients live in fear, while getting the treatment, that they will survive the cancer but die from the treatment. Quite terrifying.

       According to Canadian press accounts, Bhavya said:

“I’ve known quite a few cancer patients who’ve actually undergone many treatments. So I knew there was just a need for something to be done. So I wanted to go into that field,” said Mohan. “Whenever I see there’s an issue, whenever I see there’s a need for something, I always try to think of an innovative way by which I can solve those concerns.”   Inspired by meeting a cancer patient who was successfully treated for the disease but suffered dangerous side-effects, Ottawa high school student Bhavya Mohan came up with a new way to boost the body’s ability to detect and kill cancerous cells.   It could be an affordable alternative to current immunotherapies, according to organizers of the Canada-Wide Science Fair 2019 in Fredericton where Mohan won Thursday for the nation’s most “inspiring and ingenious” project.

       The Breakthrough: “Aptamers (from the Latin aptus – fit, and Greek meros – part) are oligonucleotide or peptide molecules that bind to a specific target molecule.”   Bhavya’s idea: We can use aptamers (DNA strands) to bind T-cells to the cancer cells. Because of their nature, these cells do not ever cause auto-immune fatal reactions. They’re DNA!   And AbiTE works just like regular BiTE molecules. And best of all, they’re cheap. One dose, Bhavya told me, costs $60, rather than $4,000!

         (I cautioned him – Amgen is not going to be real thrilled about this. You are disrupting their bottom line!).

         Many creative ideas involve connecting things others would not think of connecting. Bhavya connected BiTE immune therapy with aptimers, X + Y. This is a common sign of a creative mind – the ability to link seemingly-unconnected things.

     So —   How in the world does a 16-year-old attain such an amazing discovery?

       Bhavya Mohan’s parents were born in India. His father was born and raised in New Delhi, and his mother, in the state of Behar. They emigrated to the US, initially, then to Canada. They work for the government, in Ottawa.

          Many of the 19 high school students in Prof. Maxwell’s program had parents who came to Canada as immigrants. Last night, in conversation, I asked them about this. They explained simply that immigrant parents have high aspirations for their kids, and hope and dream their children will fulfill careers they themselves could not. This is simply rocket fuel. I know. My parents were immigrants.          

         But make no mistake. As press accounts affirm (and I can, too): “In most ways, Bhavya Mohan is like any other 16-year-old high school kid.   He likes to spend time with friends. He plays guitar and basketball. Except when he isn’t doing those things, he’s winning science fairs and making breakthrough discoveries in cancer research.”

         How did it all start? Bhavya told me that in Grade 5, when he was only 11 (!), he reached out by email to biology professors. Most did not respond. [Would YOU respond to an 11 year old, who wanted to do research with you??]   One did — Professor William Willmore, at Ottawa’s Carleton University.   He gave Bhavya tough reading assignments – and Bhavya eventually won his spurs and became Principle Investigator in a very difficult research project.

         Kudos to Professor Willmore!

       What does the future hold? Bhavya wants to patent his findings. I urged him to read the best-selling book Patent It Yourself, so he can better guide the patent lawyers. I also recommended that he gain some financial backing, to apply for a series of patents, since single patents often can be circumvented – and Big Pharma would love nothing better, to protect their billion-dollar drugs.

           He also wants to start a drug discovery company. I cautioned him that he will need massive resources for FDA trials, and that in Pharma, big whales have been known to swallow little fish, just to keep their disruptive cheap drugs off the market.

…….

       Last night, I asked these 19 students, how in the world did they survive high school – where teachers often feel threatened by bright students and their questions that the teachers cannot answer, or even understand, and simply shut them down?

       Some said their schools were supportive. Many simply said, they did their science projects on their own, without help or backing, often facing opposition. One brilliant young student told me her teachers insisted she should not study science, she wasn’t smart enough. That was a recurring theme. She had the resilience to defy them.   One student said he had to spend his own money to buy equipment.

       The historically-black US colleges used to have a mantra for fund-raising: “A mind is a terrible thing to waste”. These 19 young people’s minds have developed amazingly. But what about all those minds that have not, because of teachers who are poorly trained, badly educated, fearful of bright kids, and are hence massively destructive of their  students’ motivation and creativity?  

         What is the one thing you would change, I asked the kids, if you could, at your school? There was a strong response.   Fewer tests (especially, brain-destroying multiple choice, beloved by lazy teachers), and far more projects.

         Project based learning. Scrap the tests. Get the kids to work in teams on challenging problems. Because that is what they will do, when they become adults. So why not get them started now?

         I have been an educator for 52 years. I gave a lot of exams. I hated them. I myself learned to excel at taking exams, so I could win scholarships. That nearly ruined my creativity – it taught me to revere old knowledge, rather than challenge it and come up with new ideas.

           President George W. Bush’s first action in January 2001, after his election, was to initiate the No Child Left Behind Act. It called for extensive measurement of school quality, through standard tests.  Schools got a ‘bottom line’, just like businesses. 

      Result: throughout the US, teachers taught kids how to take tests, rather than how to cure cancer. They had to. School budgets depended on it!  Teachers hated it. The kids, even more!  Nearly 20 years later, the destruction of young minds has been MASSIVE as a result. And Bush’s failed idea spread abroad, even to my country Israel. How sad.

           When will we wake up, look at these young minds, and try to educate them as they themselves choose?  

         Not everyone is Bhavya, I know. But there are a lot more Bhavya’s out there who simply fall by the wayside.

        And it’s a terrible shame. Unforgiveable.

    

      

Memo from Canada to US: Hey, Open Your Windows!

August 14, 2019 in Global Crisis Blog, Innovation Blog | Tags: , , | Leave a comment

Memo from Canada to US: Hey, Open Your Windows!

By   Shlomo Maital   

   I am currently at York University, Toronto, Canada, on a brief visit speaking for Technion Canada and assisting a colleague with an entrepreneurship program.

   I am deeply happy to be in the country of my birth, and not in the US. On entering Canada, at Pearson Airport, a huge sign reads: Canada Welcomes Everyone!   In contrast, US border officials recently hassled my wife, who is an American citizen (!), probably because we live in Israel.

   America has a friendly, liberal neighbor to the North. Canada has solved problems the US still struggles with. Yet – America’s windows to the north are dark and shuttered. Why?

   Examples:

     * Under Canada’s Live-In Caregiver Program, established in 1992, Philippine caregivers get six months of training in their home country, contract to care for Canadian elderly in their own homes, and in return, eventually get citizenship for themselves and their families. Our loved one had 17 years of loving expert care by Philippine caregivers 24/7, enabling her to live in dignity in her own home to the end.  In contrast, America’s eldercare system, or lack of one, is, according to MIT Professor Paul Osterman, “a train wreck”.

     * Under Canada’s nimble immigration system, 330,000 immigrants will be admitted in 2019! That would be equivalent to nearly 3 million immigrants, if the same proportion were admitted to the US. Disaster? Invasion? No. In Canada 60% of foreign nationals are ‘highly educated’, according to the OECD. Canada’s “Express Entry” system invites immigrants to become permanent residents weekly, as spots open up.

   Here at York U., I am privileged to observe a phenomenal program, led by my friend and colleague Prof. Andrew Maxwell, that leads 19 incredible Canadian teenagers through a startup boot-camp. Today and then again Friday, they will ‘pitch’ their startup ideas, tackling tough problems, in teams of 3 or 4.   Of the 19, I believe at least 14 are from immigrant backgrounds.  They won their place through a series of challenging competitions.

       It is no coincidence. Immigrants’ children are driven by high aspirations. I know. I am a child of immigrants, whose parents were welcomed by Canada and thus saved from a bitter end, later, in Europe.

      I wonder why America’s windows to the north are permanently shut.   In business, companies regularly do best-practice benchmarking, to find ways to do better. Why doesn’t the United States, led by a self-defined business tycoon, do the same? Forget the President — why don’t elected politicians open their windows and look North? They might learn a few things.  

       Canadians are regularly mocked in the US – our accents, our naivete…. Too bad, America. We have national health care, we look after our elderly, we have affordable college tuition, and we don’t have assault weapons in every closet.   Ever wonder why?    

       

          

             

 

      

How to Sell Ideas: Learning from Beer

August 8, 2019 in Global Crisis Blog, Innovation Blog | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

How to Sell Ideas: Learning from Beer

 By   Shlomo Maital  

     Some of us, from time to time, get tired of wringing our hands at the awful things that happen in this world, and want to actually do something. (The poignant signs that greeted Trump in Dayton, “Do something!”, are sad, frustrating and damning).

   But how? How do you change minds that are increasingly frozen and locked?

   Let’s learn from Professor Shelle Santana, a Harvard Business School marketing expert, interviewed for the Working Knowledge online journal and podcast:

       “There are four elements to a great story.

  • You need to have a character.
  • You need to have a plot.
  • You’ve got to have some conflict or challenge that they overcome,
  • and you have to have a moral of the story, like what’s the message we’re trying to convey?

 

That’s actually surprisingly easy to do in 30 or 60 seconds. Some people, obviously, are better at it than others, but with those four pillars, you can absolutely tell a great story in a short amount of time.”

   And here is Santana’s strong example: a Budweiser beer Super Bowl ad, perhaps the greatest ever:

Santana: : Budweiser has advertised on, I believe, all Super Bowls. It’s 132 ads they’ve run, and to the tune of $440 million. And they’ve had some of the most iconic ads on the Super Bowl, as well.

Kenny: Your case cites one in particular… Which ad was that?

Santana: That was puppy love. Consumers really loved that ad, and it’s just a really sweet story. It’s very enduring about this puppy who is on a farm, and the puppy manages to dig under the fence every day and run over to the barn where the majestic Clydesdales are. He hangs out in the barn with the Clydesdales all day. He’s eventually adopted by someone, and as their car drives away the puppy is looking out the window at the Clydesdales in the field, and they notice… They block the road, and the next scene is the puppy running back with the Clydesdales. The brand logo isn’t even shown until the very last screen before the screen goes to black, and the hashtag is #BestBuds from Budweiser. So, yeah. A lot of people still say that’s the best ad ever.

   So – bottom line. If you want to persuade people, if you want to ‘sell’ ideas, if you want to stir people to act, you need to tell a strong story, with a strong character, a plot, a huge challenge, and a moral or conclusion. One ad about a little puppy can be more powerful than hundreds of billboards.  

   But did it sell beer? Here is Santana’s ‘take’:

“I think there’s stronger evidence of when brands don’t invest in advertising and messaging and storytelling on a consistent basis, you see almost an immediate decline in sales. When they do invest, it tends to either remain stable or go up, but it may not do that in the immediate short-term, right? It’s a patient long-term play, unless, in that ad, there’s a very specific call to action like if you call within the next 30 minutes, then you’ll get X, right? That doesn’t typically tend to happen on Super Bowl.    … when brands don’t invest in advertising and messaging and storytelling on a consistent basis, you see almost an immediate decline in sales.”

   Conclusion: If you want to persuade and sell ideas, tell stories about real people, N=1. Plot, conflict, challenge, moral. Just like Tolstoy (Anna Karenina), only much much briefer. And – the second part, crucial – you have to keep doing it!  

Trump does it in his political rallies. He brings people with stories up onstage with him and tells their story. N=1 is for professors not a proof – but it is strongly persuasive for the public.

 

 

      

Words Matter: How Little Women Saved Shemyla

August 5, 2019 in Global Crisis Blog, Innovation Blog | Tags: , , , | Leave a comment

Words Matter: How Little Women Saved Shemyla

 By   Shlomo Maital   

     Ira Glass is the founder of This American Life, a podcast about great stories. If you visit the podcast website, you can find all 700 episodes, each of them comprising a fascinating story.

   This is about Shemyla, recounted in a recent episode titled “The Weight of Words”. Shemyla’s life was saved, literally, by a book written by Louisa May Alcott and published 150 years ago, in 1869.

    As recounted by Robin Bates, in his blog *:

 “As is apparently sometimes the custom in Pakistan, Shemyla was given by a younger sister to her elder when the latter, living in America, appeared incapable of having children. When the adoptive parents went on to have two sons, however, Shemyla’s birth parents kidnapped her on a 1989 trip to Pakistan when she was 11. As the original arrangement had never been formalized, the adoptive parents could do nothing.

     “Imagine an early adolescent raised in suburban Maryland suddenly finding herself in an ultra-traditional Pakistani family, with all the expectations about a woman’s subordinate status and a woman’s reputation.  Shemyla’s books and cassettes were confiscated, she was kept under virtual house arrest, and she was regularly lectured on what her wifely duties would entail, including her sexual duties. Her hair had to be covered, she couldn’t make eye contact with others, she was not allowed to speak English or Urdu, she had to eat after her brothers (one of whom sexually abused her), she was kept on small portions (so that she would stay slim), and she was occasionally beaten.

“At one point, her father determined that women shouldn’t write and burned her stories in front of her. Books that she smuggled into the house were invariably confiscated.

   “Through a friend, however, she obtained a copy of Little Women, which she remembered reading while still in America. To hide it, she broke it into eight sections so that it wouldn’t show under the mattress. Whenever the family left the house, she would grab whichever section of the book came to hand and read it. “It was the book of my life, the only book I had to escape,” she says. She had parts of it memorized.

   “She had multiple responses to Alcott’s novel. Sometimes she saw things that she fantasized about, such as Meg and Jo’s relationship (she didn’t have someone comparable to confide in). At other times, she saw scenes she could relate to. As her own parents would dress her up and show her off to other families in the hope that she would be able to marry up, she identified with the “Meg Goes to Vanity Fair” chapter.

   “As the interviewer notes, Little Women functioned as both a “how-to” book and a survival guide. Not surprisingly, Shemyla identified with the ambitious, rule-breaking Jo, which helped her hold on to the identity her family was trying to squash.

   “Shemyla even had her own version of Jo writing stories in the attic, although her situation was more severe. When she was forbidden to write, she would go into the bathroom and write secretly before carefully washing the ink off the paper.

   “Figuring that the only way she could escape her life was to get married, she began a correspondence with a friend’s brother, whom her friend said would treat her well. This only served to panic her parents, who would have been horrified by the relationship between Jo and Laurie. Instead, they settled on a 30-year-old man. Then, to make sure she acquired certain skills that would increase her bride price (like being able to swim and to drive), they sent her back to America to live with her adoptive parents. Shamyla had succeeded so well in convincing them she had turned that they were willing to take the chance.

   “As she flew away, however, Shemyla knew she would never return. Although she suffered severe culture shock and required much therapy, 30 years later she is now a therapist who specializes in trauma cases. Every year on her birthday, she reads the corresponding chapter number (corresponding to her age) of Little Women to see if has any predictive value.”

     Shamyla hopes to find love – and to marry, like Little Women.

 

What Does It Take to Get the US Congress to Do the Right Thing?

July 30, 2019 in Uncategorized | Tags: , , , , | 1 comment

What Does It Take to Get the US Congress to Do the Right Thing?

 Dogged Persistence & a Late-Night Celeb

 By   Shlomo Maital   

John Feal hugging Jon Stewart

     After 9/11, many many of the responders and site-workers fell ill, as the toxic materials of the wreckage destroyed their lungs, livers and other organs. It’s hard to believe, but the Federal Government has been criminally slow to replenish the fund that helped pay for their medicine and care.

       On July 23, the Senate passed the 9/11 Victim Compensation Fund reauthorization bill. It will help first responders pay for health care through 2092. President Trump signed the bill.  

   Republican Senator Rand Paul, who voted for Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax cut, creating a $1 trillion deficit, voted against the bill, citing fiscal irresponsibility.

Well done, Senator. Make us proud. Make America great again.

       Here is what it takes to get the US Congress to do the obvious right thing.

         It takes John Feal. For the past 15 years, he has organized trips to Washington, hundreds of them, by ill, injured and dying responders, through his FealGood foundation. Feal is a demolition construction worker, who was injured while clearing rubble at Ground Zero and had part of his foot amputated. He has tried to persuade Congress to do the right thing since 2004.

         And it takes Jon Stewart. Born Jonathan Stuart Leibowitz, Stewart’s The Daily Show was for my money the funniest, most biting satire on television, for almost 20 years, since it began in 1999.  

           Here is how The Daily Beast’s Michael McAuliff describes how one dogged persistent citizen, Feal, enlisted a celeb, Stewart, and against all the odds – everyone said there was no chance to pass the bill before Congress went on vacation – got it done. Feal knew Stewart, because Feal had been on The Daily Show.

   “….when it came time to talk to lawmakers about the next bill reauthorization, [Feal] didn’t want Stewart to just read a statement he’d prepared with guidance from Hill staffers.     He wanted Stewart to speak purely from the heart, so he primed him.    He gave him a note in the morning about how much Pfeifer [a 9/11 first-responding firefighter who died as a result of the toxicity] and Stewart’s friendship meant to him. Just before going into the hearing room, Feal and former FDNY firefighter Kenny Specht presented the comedian with the fire coat Pfeifer had worn on his first job. Feal had bought it at a charity fundraiser the night before. He had dozens of responders sign it as a sign of thanks.  

   “I knew I was getting to him. I knew he was just a bowl of Jello,” Feal said.   In the hearing, Stewart was scheduled to go last. And as the proceedings progressed, Feal kept working on Stewart, pointing to the packed audience and empty chairs of representatives.    “He was just festering. I said, ‘Put the piece of paper away, and do what you do best,’” Feal recalled. “I think that moment was where we changed course. I think that’s where we took matters into our own hands. And I saw a window where we could get this done before the August recess, and I knew we didn’t have to wait until November, December like everyone else wanted.”

   Stewart’s talk went viral. He tore a strip off the Congressional representatives, chastising their utter indifference. “Your indifference cost these men and women their most valuable commodity: time. It’s the one thing they’re running out of”.   He was visibly emotional, and close to tears of rage.

   So what does it take today to get the US Congress to do the right thing? It takes one dogged, determined citizen, who somehow can enlist a celeb, who explodes spontaneously in righteous anger, at an outrageous display of indifference, by members of Congress who simply were not there. And media who helped the celeb’s talk go viral, playing it hundreds of times.

       Even stone-age fossil Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell could not resist it.

       So, how often will Congress do the right thing in future?  

       It seems to me the Babylonians invented the zero for us, so we could answer that question precisely.   Because, how often will the Feal-Stewart duo recur?

     

 

    

In Politics – Too Many Lawyers?

July 26, 2019 in Global Crisis Blog, Innovation Blog | Tags: , , , , | Leave a comment

In Politics – Too Many Lawyers?

 By   Shlomo Maital

 

     “98% of lawyers give the rest a bad name.” There are an infinite number of such jibes, most of them worse. I am an economist – Personally I think economists have done far more damage to the world than lawyers.

       But after watching the Mueller testimony, before two House of Representative committees… I can make the case that lawyer-dominated legislatures generally miss the point.

       The US House of Representatives has 535 members, of whom 168 are lawyers, by far the leading profession. In contrast there are only 11 physicians and three psychologists. Yet this body writes the laws for healthcare in the US.

         The US Senate has 50 lawyers, fully half of the 100 senators. Only 3 Senators are physicians.

         So what is the problem?

         In the Mueller hearings before the House Judiciary Committee (naturally, mostly lawyers, it makes sense) and the House Intelligence committee (also, lots of lawyers), one question dominated what members asked Mueller:

         Did President Trump break the law? Did he conspire? Did he tamper with witnesses?

         That’s the wrong question. Even if he did break the law, he cannot be prosecuted. That is what the Department of Justice says. He can be impeached – but not convicted, because Republicans dominate the Senate.

           So the legal approach is pointless.

           Then, what IS the point?

           Did President Trump act disloyally, treasonously, unethically, immorally? Did he act really really badly?  

           THAT is the question. THAT should have been the focus. It was, for a handful of House members. But mostly the lawyers dominated. And that played into Trump’s hands. Mueller was greatly limited in what he could say, because Special Counsel is a prosecutor – and prosecutors cannot say a whole lot. That in part is why his answers were hesitant. Plus – YOU try working long hours for 22 months, at age 74 and then testify for 8 hours before two committees, while having trouble hearing the questions (I really think Mueller needs hearing aids – vanity may prevent this, trust me, I know personally!).

           We voters should expect our elected leaders to behave honestly, morally, and to speak wisely, respecting everyone, especially their opponents. When they don’t — kick them out.

           2020 cannot come soon enough.      

World’s First & Greatest Democracy: R.I.P.

July 23, 2019 in Global Crisis Blog, Innovation Blog | Tags: , , , | Leave a comment

World’s First & Greatest Democracy: R.I.P.

 By Shlomo Maital  

 

   This is a very sad, wrenching eulogy for Britain. The world’s first and greatest democracy is at a dead end.  Rest in Peace.

     I often watch Parliamentary debates on BBC TV, and enjoy the thrust and parry between the Prime Minister and her critics. Democracy at its best.

     This is why I am saddened today, when crackpot Boris Johnson will be chosen Conservative Leader, and automatically Prime Minister – by 1% of the British electorate. The other 99% have no say. Why? That’s how the system was set up. It must be changed.

       Johnson has vowed to take Britain out of the EU, come what may, by Oct. 31. This implies a ‘hard Brexit’ (exit without a signed agreed deal). Here is what Bloomberg thinks about this option:

   The U.K.’s planned exit from the European Union may have already pushed the U.K. into a technical recession, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.   In a gloomy set of new forecasts, Niesr predicted that, even assuming a smooth exit in October, the nation will grow 1% in 2019 and 1% in 2020. There’s an around a one-in-four chance that the economy is already shrinking, the think tank said.

Britain may already be in recession, because of Brexit. Not a great time for a crackpot leader.

     Crackpot? Isn’t that disrespectful, extreme, exaggerated? No.

    Today’s New York Times: “Is Johnson how Britain will end?”

       Tackling Britain’s deep divisions requires depth of character, conviction and principle, none of which its incoming prime minister has ever hinted at possessing….he prizes victory above government –his first ambition as a child was to be ‘world king’ – and his political career has been marked by ferocity of campaigning and indifference in office, both as London mayor and foreign secretary…

     And another NYT article:

     In his pursuit to become prime minister, Mr. Johnson has adapted his old habits – the theatrics, the polysyllabic putdowns, the outlandish plans –for the Brexit era…..his promise to extract Britain from the EU by the end of October has left many Britons worrying he will send the country hurtling toward a potentially calamitous no-deal Brexit.

     While Trump ruins America, now Johnson will ruin Britain. Two of the West’s great economies and democracies, heading down the tubes because of a broken democratic process – Russian interference in the US, and an archaic totalitarian system for choosing the Tory leader in the UK.

       Very sad.

    

 

 

 

 

 

        

July 1-22, 1944, Bretton Woods, New Hampshire: The Forgotten Anniversary

July 20, 2019 in Global Crisis Blog, Innovation Blog | Tags: , , , , , | 1 comment

July 1-22, 1944, Bretton Woods, New Hampshire:

The Forgotten Anniversary

 By Shlomo Maital  

Hotel Mt. Washington, Bretton Woods, NH

    Today, July 20, the 50th anniversary of Neil Armstrong’s Apollo landing on the moon – and all the media are obsessively recounting, replaying, and reliving it. We learn about the world-shaking debate, whether Armstrong said “one small step for A man”, as intended, or whether he skipped the “a”. (Complex voice analysis has been done to resolve this world-shaking question).

     There is another anniversary, ignored – and far more important:   The 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, conference, July 1-22, attended by the Allies, that redesigned the architecture of the world economy. It was done in 21 days, because the wealthy Boston millionaires had booked the Hotel, Hotel Mt. Washington, for their summer vacation. That is symbolic, because ultimately, it is the 0.001% billionaires who are destroying the amazing system built in just 3 weeks in New Hampshire.

     Leading the US delegation was a Treasury official, a bureaucrat, Harry Dexter White. Leading the British delegation was the most renowned economist of his time, John Maynard Keynes. Keynes had the intellectual firepower. But White had the powerful US economy behind him. Keynes’ plan was to create a world central bank. White said, no, we already have one – the dollar will be the world’s currency.

     White won.

       At the beautiful old wooden hotel, the delegates created the I.M.F., World Bank, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the Bank for International Settlements. They laid the foundation for a global trading system with zero tariffs (“Most Favored Nation”) that led to massive creation of jobs, exports and wealth, mostly in Asia but in war-torn Europe as well.

       The system created in Bretton Woods 75 years ago has served the world well. It helped China boom, as well as Japan, Taiwan and Korea, and India too. It helped Europe unify. It may have prevented a new World War. And ultimately, it sank the U.S.S.R. by showing that free markets worked best.

       The Bretton Woods agreement has affected everyone, mostly for the good. But – it had a fatal flaw. When you create opportunities for some people to grow wealthy, by definition you also create dilemmas in which many people (unable to compete) become poorer. So what was lacking at Bretton Woods was one thing – a truly effective mechanism to redistribute wealth, for people and countries left behind.

     Ultimately, that small omission is destroying the Bretton Woods system. It is bringing ‘populist’ leaders who ignite trade wars, foster xenophobia, build walls and claim to prioritize their own countries, other nations be damned.

       Let us celebrate Bretton Woods’ Diamond Anniversary. Let’s remember the enormous benefits it brought. Let’s remind ourselves that much of the Bretton Woods system is worth preserving and strengthening, while fixing the flaws.

       I was two years old in 1944. Most people alive today were born long after Bretton Woods. Most do not even know what was done at Bretton Woods or how it affected them.

       I wish the media could leverage this crucial Diamond Anniversary to remind everyone, to educate people, to reaffirm the ultimate value to humanity of free, open trading, of commitment to creating value for the world, not just for white American males, and to take responsibility (as the US did in 1944) for struggling nations left behind.  

         I just searched Google News. The Financial Times did print a couple of pieces on Bretton Woods. So did TIME magazine.  It’s barely a ripple…not even that.

        

No-Fault Debrief: How the Israeli Air Force Could Help Your Relationships

July 20, 2019 in Global Crisis Blog, Innovation Blog | Tags: , , | Leave a comment

No-Fault Debrief: How the Israeli Air Force Could Help Your Relationships

 By   Shlomo Maital  

   The Israeli Air Force is widely known for conducting a thorough, systematic debrief after every operation – including training flights.

     The rules of the debrief are simple and clear. Find out what went right. Find out what went wrong. It’s not about finding whom to blame. It’s about learning, to do better next time. What can we do better next time? In a debrief, military rank has no relevance. All are equal.

     It’s a no-blame-game zone. There is a practical reason. If it’s about blame, then in the debrief, people will be defensive, deceptive, ambiguous and will hide the truth. And the truth, so crucial, will be the victim.

     If it’s about learning, without blame attached, there is a far better chance to gain important insights that could in future save lives.

     So to this point – it’s about flying planes.

       But what does this have to do with relationships?

       Suppose you have an argument with someone you love. Something went wrong.

       Who’s fault is it?

       That path leads nowhere, usually.

       What went wrong? What can we do better? What can we change?

       That path leads somewhere, to deeper understanding.

       Arguments? Conflict? Can you make them a no-fault zone?   Debrief them, like the Israeli Air Force. Tell the truth, because only the truth will lead to real learning. Use the truth to be better in future, not to place blame in the past.

       Wingtips nearly brushed in tight formation flying?   Who was the stupid jerk who got too close? No.   What did we do that created a dangerous situation – and how can we ensure that will never happen again? Yes.

       Easy to say, hard to do.

       Worth a try?

The Great Money Mystery—Solved!

July 20, 2019 in Global Crisis Blog, Innovation Blog | Tags: , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Great Money Mystery—Solved!

 By   Shlomo Maital

     There is a major economic mystery in Israel, US and the West.

     Governments are running big budget deficits, printing mountains of money, and yet – there is still virtually no inflation, while the inequality of wealth and income has grown alarmingly.

     Why? And — should we worry?  

     I spoke with my friend Arie Ruttenberg about this.   Ruttenberg built Kesher Barel into Israel’s largest advertising agency, sold it to the global McCann-Erickson, founded Club 50 and sold it to Migdal, and wrote a book about creativity with me [Cracking the Creativity Code, 2014]. He has expanded his assets through clever, at times contrarian, investments. Here is his ‘take’ on this mystery.   It takes him 1,267 words to explain – double the length of my usual blog. I hope your investment of time is worth it. I’m pretty sure it is.

       “In the old economy, the money that reached the marketplace was spread among everyone. When they used the money to buy goods, prices rose and this led to inflation. In the new economy, the money reaches only a few of the very rich, who mainly buy stocks, bonds and real estate. These are not included in standard measures of inflation, therefore it seems like there is no inflation.”   

        “Lately, Donald Trump, US President, has boasted about his ability to flood the system with limitless amounts of money and without causing inflation. Really? How can this be understood? There have been a few explanations of this phenomenon, that on the face of it contradict the Keynesian economic model: Huge budget deficits, together with an expansionary monetary policy and zero interest rates, and all this with full employment…and no inflation.   A true economic miracle, that invites other politicians, including some among the Democrats, to offer the nation a Paradise on Earth, of unlimited prosperity through printing money. How did this happen? Is this really sustainable? Or, is it an illusion, with inflation hidden and disguised as something else? And is there a ticking time bomb, very very quiet, a social ‘bomb’ that will result in a deafening explosion soon?”

     “A common explanation for this phenomenon is linked to globalization and technology. The argument is that we are at the dawn of a new macro-economic age, based on enormous global productive capacity and perfect competition through digital trade accessible for all. This explanation is only very partial, because it fails to explain why huge amounts of printed money enter the market and ‘evaporate’ without causing any increases in prices.”

   “My argument is that the budget deficits and the monetary expansion indeed have had an enormous impact, but in contrast with the past, they have not caused significant inflation in consumption goods, but instead have mainly brought a rise in the price of equities, bonds and commercial real estate, which in turn increase economic and social inequality.

       “John Maynard Keynes’ model assumes a uniform economy in which all consumers have similar preferences and compete for the same goods and services, available in limited quantities in the consumer goods markets. In this case, any additional money in the hands of consumers competes for the given amount of goods and so necessarily causes a rise in prices.

       “I propose that we think about consumers, in terms of two groups: a) owners of capital and b) those who earn a living by their labor. Owners of capital earn far more than they need for their subsistence, and they save the difference, mostly by investing in equities, bonds and commercial real estate. These investments continue to expand their incomes, from year to year, but the added income does not necessarily increase their consumption, which is already very high.   The second group, wage-earners or free-lancers who make a living from their wages, spend nearly all their income on their subsistence, and their savings are mostly targeted toward their pensions – that is, future consumption. Ultimately those savings will be almost completely eroded in value.

     The gap between the two groups continues to grow over time, and continually increases the degree of inequality between them.

     “What happens to the economy when the government vastly expands the amount of money? Or when the Central Bank creates huge amounts of credit at zero interest rates?  

      “The answer is: Most of the money and credit flows into the hands of the owners of capital, who grow wealthier as their assets expand, and as they continue to grow their wealth and create more jobs for wage-owners, until the economy reaches full employment. The wealthy grow even wealthier and those who live on their wages earn only enough to barely survive. In this way, the economy reaches full employment, but income and wealth inequality grow.”

      “If the demand for workers grows, why don’t wages rise? Because of the two new phenomena I mentioned, globalization and technology. Through those two forces, we have turned the majority of workers into commodities – that is, into a basic good that has cheap plentiful substitutes. These two forces create a situation in which the supply of labor becomes almost infinite — in economists’ jargon, perfectly elastic. Therefore, when the owners of capital expand their businesses and assets, they do so almost without raising wages at all. When there is full employment, you can always hire cheap foreign workers.

        “And why doesn’t the fall in unemployment bring a major increase in the demand for consumer goods and hence, a rise in their prices?

      “Because of the same two reasons — globalization and technology. Workers can today buy cheaper goods anywhere on earth, via the Internet, and the supply of such goods is becoming nearly infinite. In this way, inflationary pressure in the goods market is prevented.

     “Why doesn’t the rapid growth in incomes of the owners of capital cause inflation, when they spend that income?

      “There are two reasons.   First, because wealthy capitalists cannot eat two steaks for breakfast; and second, because it does cause inflation, but it is not called inflation, it is called “a rise in the stock market” and “a rise in the price of commercial real estate”. Yes, the excess demand caused by the budget deficit and cheap credit creates strong inflation in the main “goods” that the wealthy consume, but because these rises in equity prices and real estate prices are not included in the consumer price index, it is regarded as part of economic prosperity, and not as inflation.”

     “Why do the wealthy people continue to buy stocks, bonds and real estate after they have become so costly?

      “Because the rate of interest is zero, and because there are no other investment opportunities. Thus, the wheel continues to turn, over and over, never stopping, when:   a) the wealthy grow more and more wealthy, pocket trillions of dollars of wealth, and feel super-rich; and b) the wage-earners enjoy full employment, stretch their income to last the full month, and are content. This can be described as the “happiness of the poor”; c) the politicians waste money endlessly and are pleased with themselves; d) the governments expand the debt they owe and nobody cares; e) the central banks expand their balance sheets, and again, nobody cares.   Hallelujah! The messiah has come!

   “Can this go on forever? There is no reason why not, on condition that: a) a few madmen do not arise and start to complain about the social inequality that is becoming unbearable; b) a ‘crazy’ US Central Banker does not appear who starts to raise interest rates, and thus puncture the stock markets, bond markets and real estate prices; c) a stupid American President does not appear who crushes globalization, imports of cheap goods and imports of cheap foreign labor, through trade wars.

   “Then, what happens to the global economy? It becomes an economy of rich feudal lords, and contented vassals who earn exactly as much as they need to go to bed with a full stomach, get up the next morning and to serve their lords. Is this what Paradise looks like?   No, this is what the economics of wealth inequality looks like.

     “At the end of the 1970’s, Israel had a cabinet minister who used the phrase “blessed inflation”, to describe the impact of influence on accelerating economic activity – until, that is, the inflation destroyed the Israeli economy. When the US President brags about flooding the American economy with money in order to create growth, he is boasting in fact about “increasing blessed inequality”.

   “How long will this last? Heaven knows”.

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blog entries written by Prof. Shlomo Maital

Shlomo Maital

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